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Something is afoot in the land of Qwen

783 pointsby 6mo agosimonwillison.net
294 comments
6mo agoHN ↗

me stepping down. bye my beloved qwen.

the qwen is dead, long live the qwen.

6mo agoHN ↗

I'm hopeful they will pick up their work elsewhere and continue on this great fight for competitive open weight models.

To be honest, it's sort of what I expected governments to be funding right now, but I suppose Chinese companies are a close second.

6mo agoHN ↗

I tried the new qwen model in Codex CLI and in Roo Code and I found it to be pretty bad. For instance I told it I wanted a new vite app and it just started writing all the files from scratch (which didn’t work) rather than using the vite CLI tool.

Is there a better agentic coding harness people are using for these models? Based on my experience I can definitely believe the claims that these models are overfit to Evals and not broadly capable.

6mo agoHN ↗

I've noticed that open weight models tend to hesitate to use tools or commands unless they appeared often in the training or you tell them very explicitly to do so in your AGENTS.md or prompt.

They also struggle at translating very broad requirements to a set of steps that I find acceptable. Planning helps a lot.

Regarding the harness, I have no idea how much they differ but I seem to have more luck with https://pi.dev than OpenCode. I think the minimalism of Pi meshes better with the limited capabilities of open models.

6mo agoHN ↗

+1 to this, anecdotally I’ve found in my own evaluations that if your system prompt doesn’t explicitly declare how to invoke a tool and e.g. describe what each tool does, most models I’ve tried fail to call tools or will try to call them but not necessarily use the right format. With the right prompt meanwhile, even weak models shoot up in eval accuracy.

6mo agoHN ↗

[...] _but not necessarily use the right format._

This has also been my experience. But isn't the harness sending the instructions on how to invoke a tool? Maybe it is missing the formatting part. What do you think?

6mo agoHN ↗

Have frontier lab do the plan which is the most time consuming part anyways and then local llm do the implementation. Frontier model can orchestrate your tickets, write a plan for them and dispatch local llm agents to implement at about 180 tokens/s, vllm can probably ,manage something like 25 concurrent sessions on RTX 6000 Do it all in a worktrees and then have frontier model do the review and merge. I am just a retired hobbyist but that's my approach, I run everything through gitea issues, each issue gets launched by orchestrator in a new tmux window and two main agents (implementer and reviewer get their own panes so I can see what's going on). I think claude code now has this aspect also somewhat streamlined but I have seen no need to change up my approach yet since I am just a retired hobbyist tinkering on my personal projects. Also right now I just use claude code subagents but have been thinking of trying to replace them with some of these Qwen 3.5 models because they do seem cpable and I have the hardware to run them.

6mo agoHN ↗

In my experience Qwen3.5/Qwen3-Coder-Next perform best in their own harness, Qwen-Code. You can also crib the system prompt and tool definitions from there though. Though caveat, despite the Qwen models being the state of the art for local models they are like a year behind anything you can pay for commercially so asking for it to build a new app from scratch might be a bit much.

6mo agoHN ↗

What is "the new qwen model"? There are a dozen and you can get them in a dozen different quantizations (or more) which are of different quality each.

6mo agoHN ↗

I really hope this doesn't hinder development too much. As Simon says, Qwen3.5 is very impressive.

I've been testing Qwen3.5-35B-A3B over the past couple of days and it's a very impressive model. It's the most capable agentic coding model I've tested at that size by far. I've had it writing Rust and Elixir via the Pi harness and found that it's very capable of handling well defined tasks with minimal steering from me. I tell it to write tests and it writes sane ones ensuring they pass without cheating. It handles the loop of responding to test and compiler errors while pushing towards its goal very well.

6mo agoHN ↗

what's your take between Qwen3.5-35B-A3B and Qwen3-Coder-Next?

6mo agoHN ↗

In my experience Qwen3.5 is better even at smaller distillations. From what I understand the Qwen3-next series of models was just a test/preview of the architectural changes underpinning Qwen3.5. So Qwen3.5 is a more complete and well trained version of those models.

6mo agoHN ↗

In my experience qwen 3 coder next is better. I ran quite a few tests yesterday and it was much better at utilizing tool calls properly and understanding complex code. For its size though 3.5 35B was very impressive. coder next is an 80b model so i think its just a size thing - also for whatever reason coder next is faster on my machine. Only model that is competitive in speed is GLM 4.7 flash

6mo agoHN ↗

What do you use as the orchestrator? By this I mean opencode, or the like. Is that the right term?

6mo agoHN ↗

I use the term "harness" for those - or just "coding agent". I think orchestrator is more appropriate for systems that try to coordinate multiple agents running at the same time.

This terminology is still very much undefined though, so my version may not be the winning definition.

6mo agoHN ↗

I'm basically using the agentic features of the Zed editor: https://zed.dev/agentic

It's really easy to setup with any OpenAI compatible API and I self host Qwen Coder 3 Next on my personal MBP using LM Studio and just dial in from my work laptop with Zed and tailscale so i can connect from wherever i might be. It's able to do all sorts of things like run linting checks and tests and look for issues and refactor code and create files and things like this. I'm definitely still learning, but it's a pretty exciting jump from just talking to a chat bot and copying and pasting things manually.

6mo agoHN ↗

Another vote in favour of "harness".

I'm aligning on Agent for the combination of harness + model + context history (so after you fork an agent you now have two distinct agents)

And orchestrator means the system to run multiple agents together.

6mo agoHN ↗

This has also been my understanding of all of these terms so far

6mo agoHN ↗

In my tests, Qwen3.5-35B-A3B is better, there is no comparison. Better tool calling and reasoning than Qwen3-Coder-Next for Html/Js coding tasks of medium size. Beware the quants and llama.cpp settings, they matter a lot and you have to try out a bunch of different quants to find one with acceptable settings, depending on your hardware.

6mo agoHN ↗

I've been testing the same with some rust, and it's has spent a fair bit of time going through an infinite seeming loop before finally unjamming itself. It seems a little more likely to jam up than some other models I've experimented with.

It's also driving itself crazy with deadpool & deadpool-r2d2 that it chose during planning phase.

That said, it does seem to be doing a very good job in general, the code it has created is mostly sane other than this fuss over the database layer, which I suspect I'll have to intervene on. It's certainly doing a better job than other models I'm able to self-host so far.

6mo agoHN ↗

Some of the early quants had issues with tool calling and looping. So you might want to check that you're running the latest version / recommended settings.

6mo agoHN ↗

it's has spent a fair bit of time going through an infinite seeming loop before finally unjamming itself.

I think this is part of the model’s success. It’s cheap enough that we’re all willing to let it run for extremely long times. It takes advantage of that by being tenacious. In my experience it will just keep trying things relentlessly until eventually something works.

The downside is that it’s more likely to arrive at a solution that solves the problem I asked but does it in a terribly hacky way. It reminds me of some of the junior devs I’ve worked with who trial and error their way into tests passing.

I frequently have to reset it and start it over with extra guidance. It’s not going to be touching any of my serious projects for these reasons but it’s fun to play with on the side.

6mo agoHN ↗

and it's has spent a fair bit of time going through an infinite seeming loop before finally unjamming itself

I can live with this on my own hardware. Where Opus4.6 has developed this tendency to where it will happily chew through the entire 5-hour allowance on the first instruction going in endless circles. I’ve stopped using it for anything except the extreme planning now.

6mo agoHN ↗

I don't know much about how these models are trained, but is this behavior intentional (ie, the people pulling the levers knew that this is how it would end up), or is it emergent (ie, pulling the levers to see what happens)?

6mo agoHN ↗

It's the number of active parameters for a Mixture of Experts (misleading name IMO) model.

Qwen3.5-35B-A3B means that the model itself consists of 35 billion floating point numbers - very roughly 35GB of data - which are all loaded into memory at once.

But... on any given pass through the model weights only 3 billion of those parameters are "active" aka have matrix arithmetic applied against them.

This speeds up inference considerably because the computer has to do less operations for each token that is processed. It still needs the full amount of memory though as the 3B active it uses are likely different on every iteration.

6mo agoHN ↗

It will benefit from a full amount of memory for sure, but AIUI if you use system memory and mmap for your experts you can execute the model with only enough memory for the active parameters, it's just unbearably slow since it has to swap in new experts for every token. So the more memory you have in excess to that, the more inactive but often-used experts can be kept in RAM for better performance.

6mo agoHN ↗

The ability to stream weights from disk has nothing to do with MoE or not. You can always do this. It will be unusable either way.

6mo agoHN ↗

Agreed but for a dense model you'd have to stream the whole model for every token, whereas with MoE there's at least the possibility that some experts may be "cold" for any given request and not be streamed in or cached. This will probably become more likely as models get even sparser. (The "it's unusable" judgmemt is correct if you're considering close-to-minimum reauirements, but for just getting a model to fit, caching "almost all of it" in RAM may be an excellent choice.)

6mo agoHN ↗

Unlike offloading weights from VRAM to system RAM, I just can't see a situation where you would want to offload to an SSD. The difference is just too large, and any model so large you can't run it in system RAM, is going to be so large it is probably unusable except in VRAM.

6mo agoHN ↗

Unusable for anything like realtime response, yes. Might be usable and even quite sensible to power less-than-realtime uses on much cheaper inference platforms, as long as the slow storage bandwidth doesn't overly bottleneck compute.

6mo agoHN ↗

Have you tried the '--jinja' flag in llama-server?

6mo agoHN ↗

Yes, it fails too. I’m using the unsloth q4_km quant. Similarly fails with devstral2 small too, fixed that by using a similar template i found for it. Maybe it’s the quants that are broken, need to redownload I guess.

6mo agoHN ↗

I’ve been running it via llama-server with no issues. Running the latest Bartowski 6-bit quant

6mo agoHN ↗

Bartowski? Like Chuck Bartowski from the TV show?

6mo agoHN ↗

Different one. Bartowski is a minor celebrity in the local LLM world, together with Unsloth.

6mo agoHN ↗

What's the selling point of these quants vs the Unsloth ones?

6mo agoHN ↗

Sometimes unsloth has broken ones for a particular model, sometimes no quants at all, and there is subtle difference in behavior.

6mo agoHN ↗

What hardware do you have it running on? Do you feel you could replace the frontier models with it for everyday coding? Would/will you?

6mo agoHN ↗

I'm getting ~30 tok/s on the A3B model with my 3070 Ti and 32k context.

Do you feel you could replace the frontier models with it for everyday coding? Would/will you?

Probably not yet, but it's really good at composing shell commands. For scripting or one-liner generation, the A3B is really good. The web development skills are markedly better than Qwen's prior models in this parameter range, too.

6mo agoHN ↗

That seems oddly low / slower by a fair amount than i get on my m4. (I believe it was ~45 tok/s?)

What quant are you using? How much ram does it have?

6mo agoHN ↗

60 to 70 on a 5080, but only tinkering for now. The smaller models seem exceptionally good for what they are, and some can even do OCR reliably.

6mo agoHN ↗

What quantization are you running on the 5080? I'm waiting to receive mine.

6mo agoHN ↗

Around 20ish tokens a second with 6-bit quant at very long context lengths on my AMD AI Max 395+

I’m trying to use local models whenever possible. Still need to lean on the frontier models sometimes.

6mo agoHN ↗

I've been playing with 3.5:122b on a GH200 the past few days for rust/react/ts, and while it's clearly sub-Sonnet, with tight descriptions it can get small-medium tasks done OK - as well as Sonnet if the scope is small.

The main quirk I've found is that it has a tendency to decide halfway through following my detailed instructions that it would be "simpler" to just... not do what I asked, and I find it has stripped all the preliminary support infrastructure for the new feature out of the code.

6mo agoHN ↗

Turn down the temperature and you’ll see less “simpler” short cuts.

6mo agoHN ↗

For the uninitiated: Interestingly, it is not advisable to take this to the extreme and set temperature to 0.

That would seem logical, as the results are then completely deterministic, but it turns out that a suboptimal token may result in a better answer in the long run. Also, allowing for a little bit of noise gives the model room to talk itself out of a suboptimal path.

6mo agoHN ↗

I like to think of this like tempering the output space. With a temperature of zero, there is only one possible output and it may be completely wrong. With even a low temperature, you drastically increase the chances that the output space contains a correct answer, through containing multiple responses rather than only one.

I wonder if determinism will be less harmful to diffusion models because they perform multiple iterations over the response rather than having only a single shot at each position that lacks lookahead. I'm looking forward to finding out and have been playing with a diffusion model locally for a few days.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yup. I think of it as how off the rails do you want to explore?

For creative things or exploratory reasoning, a temperature of 0.8 lends us to all sorts of excursions down the rabbit hole. However, when coding and needing something precise, a temperature of 0.2 is what I use. If I don’t like the output, I’ll rephrase or add context.

6mo agoHN ↗

Setting the temperature to zero does not make the llm fully deterministic, although it is close.

6mo agoHN ↗

That sounds awfully similar to what Opus 4.6 does on my tasks sometimes.

Blah blah blah (second guesses its own reasoning half a dozen times then goes). Actually, it would be a simpler to just ...

Specifically on Antigravity, I've noticed it doing that trying to "save time" to stay within some artificial deadline.

It might have something to do with the system messages and the reinforcement/realignment messages that are interwoven into the context (but never displayed to end-users) to keep the agents on task.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yeah that happened to me with Claude code opus 4.6 1M for the first time today. I had to check the model hadn’t changed. It was weird. I was imagining that maybe anthropic have a way of deciding how much resource a user actually gets and they had downgraded me suddenly or something.

6mo agoHN ↗

Claude Code recently downgraded the default thinking level to “medium”, so it’s worth checking your settings.

6mo agoHN ↗

Thank you. The difference was quite noticeable today.

6mo agoHN ↗

Thank you thank you you give me hope :)

But how do you see the current thinking level and how do you change it? I’ve been clicking around and searching and adding “effortLevel”:”high” to .claude/settings.json but no idea if this actually has any effect etc.

6mo agoHN ↗

As per Anthropic support (for Mac and Linux respectively) -

  $ echo 'export ANTHROPIC_EFFORT="high"' >> ~/.zshrc source ~/.zshrc
  $ echo 'export ANTHROPIC_EFFORT="high"' >> ~/.bashrc source ~/.bashrc

I prefer settings.json (VSCode) -

  "claudeCode.environmentVariables": [
    { "name": "ANTHROPIC_MODEL", "value": "claude-opus-4-6" },
    { "name": "CLAUDE_CODE_EFFORT_LEVEL", "value": "high" }
  ], ...
6mo agoHN ↗

Or the 2026 version: 'Hey Claude set your thinking level to high.'

6mo agoHN ↗

Re-introduced the "ultrathink" keyword to enable high effort for the next tur

Doh.

6mo agoHN ↗

As someone that started using Co-work, I feel like I am going insane with the frequency that I have to keep telling it to stay on task.

If you ask it to do something laborious like review a bunch of websites for specific content it will constantly give up, providing you information on how you can continue the process yourself to save time. Its maddening.

6mo agoHN ↗

In my experience all of the models do that. It's one of the most infuriating things about using them, especially when I spend hours putting together a massive spec/implementation plan and then have to sit there babysitting it going "are you sure phase 1 is done?" and "continue to phase 2"

I tend to work on things where there is a massive amount of code to write but once the architecture is laid down, it's just mechanical work, so this behavior is particularly frustrating.

6mo agoHN ↗

I hope you will excuse my ignorance on this subject, so as a learning question for me: is it possible to add what you put there as an absolute condition, that all available functions and data are present as an overarching mandate, and it’s simply plug and chug?

6mo agoHN ↗

Recently it seems that even if you add those conditions the LLMs will tend to ignore them. So you have to repeatedly prompt them. Sometimes string or emphatic language will help them keep it “in mind”.

6mo agoHN ↗

Glad it's not just me then, it's been driving me slightly batty.

6mo agoHN ↗

That’s pretty funny when compared with the rhetoric like “AI doesn’t get tired like humans.” No, it doesn’t, but it roleplays like it does. I guess there is too much reference to human concerns like fatigue and saving effort in the training.

6mo agoHN ↗

This is what happens when a bunch of billionaires convince people autocomplete is AI.

Don't get me wrong, it's very good autocomplete and if you run it in a loop with good tooling around it, you can get interesting, even useful results. But by its nature it is still autocomplete and it always just predicts text. Specifically, text which is usually about humans and/or by humans.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yep. The veil of coherence extends convincingly far by means of absurd statistical power, but the artifacts of next token prediction become far more obvious when you're running models that can work on commodity hardware

6mo agoHN ↗

You are not wrong, but after having started working with LLMs, I have this feeling that many humans are simply autocomplete engines too. So LLMs might be actually close to AGI, if you define "general" as "more than 50% of the population".

6mo agoHN ↗

Humans are absolutely auto-complete engines, and regularly produce incorrect statements and actions with full confidence in it being precisely correct.

Just think about how many thousands of times you've heard "good morning" after noon both with and without the subsequent "or I guess I should say good afternoon" auto-correct.

6mo agoHN ↗

Well the essence of software engineering is taking this complex real world tasks and breaking them down into simpler parts until they can be done by simple (conceptually) digital circuits.

So it's not surprising that eventually autocomplete can reach up from those circuits and take on some tasks that have already been made simple enough.

I think what's so interesting is how uneven that reach is. Some tasks it is better than at least 90% of devs and maybe even superhuman (which, in this case, I mean better than any single human. I've never seen an LLM do something that a small team couldn't do better if given a reasonable amount of time). Other cases actual old school autocomplete might do a better job, the extra capabilities added up to negative value and its presence was a distraction.

Sometimes there is an obvious reason why (solving a problem with lots of example solution online vs working with poorly documented proprietary technologies), but other times there isn't. They certainly have raised the floor somewhat, but the peaks and valleys remain enormous which is interesting.

To me that implies there is both lots of untapped potential and challenges the LLM developers have not even begun to face.

6mo agoHN ↗

Why keep using it then? I simply still read websites. It's not always great but sounds better than whatever that weird dynamic is!

6mo agoHN ↗

If found it better to split in smaller tasks from a first overall analysis and make it do only that subtask and make it give me the next prompt once finished (or feed that to a system of agents). There is a real threshold from where quality would be lost.

6mo agoHN ↗

As someone that started using Co-work, I feel like I am going insane with the frequency that I have to keep telling it to stay on task.

Used to have the same thing happening when using Sonnet or Opus via Windsurf.

After switching to Claude Code directly though (and using "/plan" mode), this isn't a thing any more.

So, I reckon the problem is in some of these UI/things, and probably isn't in the models they're sending the data to. Windsurf for example, which we no longer use due to the inferior results.

6mo agoHN ↗

I've found antigravity to be completely unusable.

It's amazing how much foundational prompting and harness matters.

6mo agoHN ↗

Opus 4.6 found in my documentation how to flash the device and wanted to be clever and helpful and flash it for me after doing series of fixes. I've got used to approving commands and missed that one. So it bricked it. Then I wrote extra instructions saying flashing of any kind is forbidden. Few days later it did again and apologised...

6mo agoHN ↗

Haha yeah I've had this happen to me too (inside copilot on GitHub). I ask it to make a field nullable, and give it some pointers on how to implement that change.

It just decided halfway that, nah, removing the field altogether means you don't have to fix the fallout from making that thing nullable.

Lmao.

6mo agoHN ↗

that it would be "simpler" to just... not do what I asked

That sounds too close to what I feel on some days xD

6mo agoHN ↗

to decide halfway through following my detailed instructions that it would be "simpler" to just... not do what I asked

That's likely coming from the 3:1 ratio of linear to quadratic attention usage. The latest DeepSeek also suffers from it which the original R1 never exhibited.

6mo agoHN ↗

There is no way you can diagnose this like that. Correlation isn't causation and much more likely is a common source of reinforcement training data.

6mo agoHN ↗

The main quirk I've found is that it has a tendency to decide halfway through following my detailed instructions that it would be "simpler" to just... not do what I asked,

This is my experience with the Qwen3-Next and Qwen3.5 models, too.

I can prompt with strict instructions saying "** DO NOT..." and it follows them for a few iterations. Then it has a realization that it would be simpler to just do the thing I told it not to do, which leads it to the dead end I was trying to avoid.

6mo agoHN ↗

I've seen behavior like that when the model wasn't being served with sufficiently sized context window

6mo agoHN ↗

Claude Opus does this constantly for me, no matter how I prompt it or what is in my AGENTS.md, etc. It is the bane of my existence.

6mo agoHN ↗

I've had even better results using the dense 27B model -- less looping and churning on problems

6mo agoHN ↗

Which dense model are you referring to? The dense model isn’t finetuned for code instruction according to the model card.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yeah the page you linked even shows the benchmarks in coding for this model, so I'd be curious where that claim comes from

6mo agoHN ↗

I'm running this exact same setup on a Framework Desktop and I'm seeing ~30 tokens/second

6mo agoHN ↗

Getting a bit of whiplash goin from AI is replacing people, to AI is dead without (these specific) people. Surely we're far enough ahead that AI can take it from here?

Wild times!

6mo agoHN ↗

Who is suggesting "AI is dead without (these specific) people"? People are wondering what it means specifically for the Qwen model family.

6mo agoHN ↗

We've gone from AGI goals to short-term thinking via Ads. That puts things better in perspective, I think.

6mo agoHN ↗

Claude is incapable of producing a native application for itself, and is bad enough with web ones to justify Anthropic acquiring Bun.

6mo agoHN ↗

Anthropic has one nine of uptime right now. One.

https://status.claude.com/

If AI could effectively replace people, you wouldn’t need CEOs to keep trying to convince people.

6mo agoHN ↗

Not sure what the uptime is meant to signal. People have quite low uptime as well…

6mo agoHN ↗

Huh? Servers aren't people and thus have completely different expectations, or what am I missing here

6mo agoHN ↗

This is pretty pedantic, but I think it's usually rounded. 1=90%, 2=99%, 3=99.9%. I'd say 98% is "not even two nines" but not "one nine".

6mo agoHN ↗

Honestly my impression was the “nines” of reliability just means how many nines your reliability starts with, as a decimal. I never thought much about it though.

I will also say it’s amusing that the debate is between one and two nines. Neither is objectively great. If you built a system with >3.65 days of downtime in a year that wouldn’t be something you’d brag about in an interview.

6mo agoHN ↗

I would take their displayed uptime with a huge grain of salt. The other day Claude Code and claude.ai web were completely unavailable for me (Claude Code got into logged out state and couldn’t even log in) for at least two hours, they showed hours of “elevated errors”, yet not a single minute of downtime was recorded. And then there was yet another outage finally with recorded downtime a few hours later…

Edit: This incident: https://status.claude.com/incidents/kyj825w6vxr8

6mo agoHN ↗

Everything on that page has two nines, so not sure what you're trying to say here.

6mo agoHN ↗

Right now everything on that page is 98 point something, so it must be fluctuating.

6mo agoHN ↗

This morning it was less than 99% which is one nine of reliability.

In any case, two nines of reliability is not impressive.

6mo agoHN ↗

Anthropic also fires off the alarm bells seemingly at any sign of issue. I've personally only noticed an outage once, and the status page wasn't even showing it as down at that time. It eventually did update about 45 minutes later, then I was back up and running another 15 minutes later but the "outage" on the status page stayed up for another hour or so.

Probably good to sent alerts early, but they might be going a bit too early.

6mo agoHN ↗

Anthropic is a great case study in why uptime doesn’t matter. The service is so valuable that you can have one nine uptime and add $9bil ARR in 3 months.

6mo agoHN ↗

"product market fit is when people are ripping the product out of your hands and everything is breaking constantly" - seems bullish to me

6mo agoHN ↗

I wonder how a US lab hasn't dumped truckloads of cash into various laps to ensure these researchers have a place at their lab

6mo agoHN ↗

Indeed; or, Europe badly needs a competitive model to hedge against US political nonsense.

6mo agoHN ↗

Offering „You are welcome“ relocation package to Anthropic might be a good idea.

6mo agoHN ↗

Given how American govt. has treated Anthropic, I think you might be right. EU truly has a remarkable opportunity to make Anthropic/Claude European.

6mo agoHN ↗

This US administration (or any admin) would almost certainly impose export controls on US AI technology before it would allow one of the frontier model providers to be acquired/relocate outside the US. It did the same thing when ASML wanted to acquire Cymer (California company that provides the EUV light source technology). The acquisition was only allowed under strict technology sharing/export agreements with the Dutch government.

Europe really just needs to rally behind Mistral. That's where they should dump their cash.

6mo agoHN ↗

Having one „champion“ is flawed European approach. We need local competition and headhunting to make it fly.

6mo agoHN ↗

Hard to compete in an environment that’s anti-996 and the pay is so much less.

6mo agoHN ↗

Can they actually prevent it though? In typical cases there would be IP licenses involved. But in this case it's a valuation based (AFAICT) on a team of people plus their infra. What happens if they all just happened to get hired by "AnthropicEU GmbH" a new entity which has been gifted hundreds of millions in computing resources?

6mo agoHN ↗

But can they restrict the researchers from leaving? What if they are just offered regular jobs by a new European company? What the US has done is dictatorial, but this would be even worse if they try to do it.

6mo agoHN ↗

Given what Amodei thinks of spying non-US citizens, that's a hard pass from me. If you are that loyal (servile) to your country leaders, don't go elsewhere when you "discover" they are thugs. Put up with it or revolt (as Iranians are being asked to do).

6mo agoHN ↗

I'm not sure goals are totally aligned though. The current models are created by enormous expense. We know that many stages are done incorrectly. I am confident that they can be replicated without any unique US knowledge.

At the moment my impression is instead that the issue is computational resources. It's important to stay near the frontier though, and to build up ones capacity to train large models.

Consequently I don't think we need Anthropic. It wouldn't be terrible if they came. Especially if they picked a nice location. Barcelona would be very nice, for example.

6mo agoHN ↗

It's all tied up in real estate and horribly inefficient savings accounts.

6mo agoHN ↗

Anthropic has gone out of their way to make a point about how much they love and admire the US state and its defense sector. Only drawing the line at a very far point and even when they drew the line it was with a big thing about how they believe in the American defense sector blah blah blah.

In any case, there's no way Anthropic's investors in Silicon Valley would countenance such a move.

Also, I'm biased the logical place is Canada, not Europe. Much of the fundamental/foundational research on LLMs, and a large part of the talent, came from universities in Canada anyways.

6mo agoHN ↗

Look up how many of the main people are Polish.

6mo agoHN ↗

They probably have tried, but you have to have more cash than those researchers feel they can get starting their own lab. When you consider the fact that their new startup lab would have the entire nation of China as, in effect, a captive market; you start to see how almost any amount of money would be too little to convince them not to make a run at that new startup. If money is their aim.

I think Alibaba needs to just give these guys a blank check. Let them fill it in themselves. Absent that, I'm pretty sure they'll make their own startup.

I do think it'd be a big loss for the rest of the world though if they close whatever model their startup comes up with.

6mo agoHN ↗

I do think it'd be a big loss for the rest of the world though if they close whatever model their startup comes up with.

That's very likely to happen once the gap with OpenAI/Anthropic has been closed and they managed to pop the bubble.

6mo agoHN ↗

I don’t know, the EV bubble deflated and Chinese firms are still pumping them out with subsidies like their life depends on it.

6mo agoHN ↗

What the US has done is dumped truckloads of cash to make it likely that as a legal immigrant you will be abducted and sent to a camp.

6mo agoHN ↗

China is also giving them dump trucks full of cash though. Plus you have to content with the nationalism reason (unfortunately this has died off in America for too many). The idea of building your country is valued for most Chinese I have met. Plus China is incredibly nice to live in, especially if you have lots of money and/or connections. So you can work in China, get paid lots of money, feel like you are doing good. Or In America you can get paid lots of money, and get yelled at by people online because the Government wants to use your model.

6mo agoHN ↗

China city life is amazingly convenient. Trains and subways are just such an enormous quality of life boost. Add to that the relative cleanliness of having nearly zero homelessness and you’ve got something very compelling.

I will say we are winning in accessibility. China doesn’t have much of a ramp game

6mo agoHN ↗

All very true.

I wonder if you max out your options in China. It seems the Party is suspicious of ambition and high profile winners. I'm sure you can live comfortably, but there's a ceiling.

6mo agoHN ↗

Star athletes really hate being told they can't score more than 10 goals in a season because it's unfair to the other weaker players. The players will either leave to go play somewhere else, or they become weaker players themselves.

6mo agoHN ↗

Why would a country want to welcome a psychopath whose goal is to make lots of money and wield political power that results from the money. I'm sure they would be happier with just as psychopathic people who make a bit less money but don't have aspirations of running the country from their secret bunker.

6mo agoHN ↗

wowsa - wasn't expecting star athletes and sports to enter this conversation... wild!

6mo agoHN ↗

how about explaining why without giving an analogy?

6mo agoHN ↗

And yet almost all of the most popular sports leagues in the US have a salary cap rule.

6mo agoHN ↗

That’s not relevant to normal people. If you’re a billionaire with aspirations of power then it’s probably good there’s a ceiling. Sure beats having Elon randomly firing your public servants while high on ketamine.

6mo agoHN ↗

Or In America you can get paid lots of money, and get yelled at by people online because the Government wants to use your model.

Isn't it just straight-up illegal in China to refuse the government from using your model? USA isn't perfect, but at least it has active discourse.

6mo agoHN ↗

I would imagine if it isn't illegal its a very bad idea not to. But regardless, I would bet large amounts of money that you would never get any flack for doing anything for the government. If I went on X, Threads, Bluesky, TikTok and said "Hey I am a software engineer selling awesome new technology to the government and military!" I am going to get Americans attacking me for supporting Trump / ICE / FBI whatever the current issue of the day is. If I did the same on Douyin or Weibo the response would be able making China strong, and there would be no criticism of that choice.

6mo agoHN ↗

Sure, but the difference is that while the Chinese state is measurably awful on all sorts of human rights things within their own borders... they're not currently dropping bombs on foreign cities, starving a neighbour of critical petroleum shipments, or heavily funding an ally to slowly exterminate a population.

6mo agoHN ↗

What point are you trying to make here? Are government abuses somehow inherently better or worse depending on where they happen?

Do you imagine an invasion of Taiwan won't involve dropping bombs?

I feel like we should be able to agree that providing authoritarian regimes with high tech tools is immoral in the general case.

6mo agoHN ↗

My point is as a non-American I feel no allegiance to either state, and current events don't make me sympathetic to the geo-political aims of the USA. So I don't see a strong moral case for this tech being an especial purvey of either party.

If you'd asked me two years ago my answer might have been different.

And to the original point, yeah, I would feel entirely justified in the critique of engineers in providing tools to the US defense apparatus at this point.

At least the Chinese shops are giving their weights away for free, and not demanding that any government ban the rest.

6mo agoHN ↗

If I did the same on Douyin or Weibo the response would be able making China strong, and there would be no criticism of that choice.

Right, because in China if you were criticized for helping the government, the people who criticized you would be in for (probably life-damaging) trouble.

6mo agoHN ↗

At least it has been decades since China Gov bombed innocent people in other countries. A peaceful and responsible government.

6mo agoHN ↗

A peaceful and responsible government.

People in Hong Kong died. Over 10,000 were arrested and many are still in prison. The rest are permanently disgraced in their social-credit society.

Again, USA is not perfect, but let's not dream up some fantasy about the CCP.

6mo agoHN ↗

People in Hong Kong died

Do you have a legit source for this? When I search for information, I only found this case, “Luo Changqing, a 70-year-old Hong Kong cleaner, died from head injuries sustained after he was hit by a brick thrown by a Hong Kong protester during a violent confrontation between two groups in Sheung Shui, Hong Kong on 13 November 2019.”

None of the other legit sources claim the police killed any of the rioters.

6mo agoHN ↗

Sure, sure. The CCP probably has gotten a lot better since Tienanmen Square.

6mo agoHN ↗

What's ironic is that China is desperately trying to be that country, but the US has then in a geographic/geopolitical choke hold.

6mo agoHN ↗

Constant military drills around Taiwan isn't peaceful or responsible.

China is bullying lots of countries in the SCS (ramming Philippine coast guard ships, building military installations in the SCS, ...). Not peaceful or responsible.

6mo agoHN ↗

AKA defending itself against separatists and sovereignty intrusions from much less powerful aggressors with unreasonable amount of restraint. One would argue overly peaceful, and irresponsible to the point of detrimental peace disease. BTW PRC settled most border disputes in recorded history with most concessions, majority over 50%, that objectively makes PRC the most peaceful rising power in recent history. Even in SCS PRC was second last to militarize, the other disputees started land reclamations and militarization first (apart from Brunei), aka a fucked around and find out situation. Even then all PRC did was build a bigger island, instead of glassing theirs, PRC coast guard last to weaponize as well.

6mo agoHN ↗

If China was serious about a military solution for Taiwan they would be invading right now while the US is unloading into the desert.

6mo agoHN ↗

The US would get out of the desert and to Taiwan fast if that happened.

6mo agoHN ↗

building military installations in the SCS

Many countries in the SCS are doing this. In fact China was late to the game, as Vietnam did it much earlier.

6mo agoHN ↗

Probably. There are different kinds of political power though; it seems the qwen architects are using one right now.

The real political power we have through our vote is probably smaller than the political power most of us here have from the option to quit.

6mo agoHN ↗

I got an offer out of the blue for a consulting gig in ML, offering USD 400/hr in China. Assuming this was legit (the offeror seemed legit), it looks like China is also throwing a lot of Benjamins around...

6mo agoHN ↗

China is incredibly nice to live in

I'm sure it's a very nice place to live if you're content to just stay quiet in society and never put a political sign in your yard or even just talk about the wrong thing with your friend in a WeChat.

6mo agoHN ↗

try to protest in america and see how that works out for you long-term. or say protest against genocide in gaza at an uni or generally in public…

6mo agoHN ↗

Sigh. Let's not invent things? You can protest anything in the US just fine, with generally no consequences. Heck, our local _high_ _school_ students go out and protest everything to weasel out of classes.

6mo agoHN ↗

Trump admin did put people in prison and then deported them, for doing nothing more than protesting.

Not as bad as China sure, but not as good as other civilized nations.

6mo agoHN ↗

Let's just clarify that visitors don't have the same rights as citizens. Whether or not you agree with the current administration's policies hopefully we can agree that it is entirely reasonable for them to deport foreign political dissidents more or less at their discretion.

If you want to put this to the test try crossing the Canadian border and when they ask you the purpose of your visit respond that it's to attend a protest.

6mo agoHN ↗

Trump admin did put people in prison and then deported them, for doing nothing more than protesting.

Link? I’m guessing we’re going to see that this definition of “protesting” involves being aggressive and directly in the face of law enforcement officers, not merely holding a sign at a distance.

6mo agoHN ↗

Link? I’m guessing we’re going to see that this definition of “protesting” involves being aggressive and directly in the face of law enforcement officers, not merely holding a sign at a distance.

Please read up on this one example of a US permanent resident. And then justify the actions of the govt against Yunseo Chung.

https://humanrightsfirst.org/yunseo-chung-v-trump-administra...

6mo agoHN ↗

Oh, I fully support their right to protest.

It just looks a bit ridiculous when students walk out in protest against things that are far outside the influence of their school, city, or even state.

6mo agoHN ↗

This is an exaggeration. Nobody in China cares about what you speak with each other privately, and people talk about stupid policies all the time. The government cares about _public_ actions.

In practical terms, if you're not kind of person who would want to run for an office in the US, China is incredibly comfortable. Cities are safe, with barely any violent crime. Public drug use is nonexistent. And with the US-level AI researcher income, you'd be in the top 0.1% earners.

6mo agoHN ↗

nobody in China cares about what you speak with each other privately, and people talk about stupid policies all the time. The government cares about _public_ actions.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47252833

My comment and the linked video says otherwise. The guy was in a private group chat and said some nasty things about the police for confiscating his motorcycle. Now he's arrested and in the Tiger Chair.

How are we explaining this?

6mo agoHN ↗

Group with 75 people. That's a crowd, doesn't matter if gated behind QR code invites. Shit talk cops and gov with the bois is fine. Shit talk / soapbox in a crowd (virtual or real) and get caught or reported = drink tea on the menu.

6mo agoHN ↗

never put a political sign in your yard or even just talk about the wrong thing with your friend in a WeChat.

Practically, how many care about that? Consider that in other part of the world they also cancel folks based on social media opinion...

and that Benjamin Franklin's opinion on security and freedom? Thats terminally online phenomenon only. I once tried to bring that without specifically mentioned that it came from ol Ben himself to folks IRL. Many thought it was some anarchist blabbers.

6mo agoHN ↗

Chinese people are very racist towards non-Chinese. It might seem like a happy utopia, but if you aren't Chinese, then you may not really enjoy your time there. It may not be quite as bad as being black in rural US south, but being black (or anything non-Chinese) in China is still not going to be a good time.

6mo agoHN ↗

Wild to call 1.42 billion people racist despite having met very few of them.

6mo agoHN ↗

It's funny that you think you know who I've met. YOU DON'T KNOW ME.

6mo agoHN ↗

Racism in even the worse parts of America doesn't even begin to touch the racism present in monocultural/monoracial countries.

6mo agoHN ↗

Have you experienced racism? In Japan atleast, it was evenly applied. That company won't rent to foreigners but this one will. That company won't hire foreigners but this one will. Police will bother you if you ride a bike, but they will be polite while they waste 10 minutes of your time asking for your gaijin card for biking while foreign.

In the US people try to hide it and are far more sinister about it, since there are a lot of laws against obvious racism. The cops are also happy in the US to just kill you.

The racism in the US comes out of hate where as what I experienced abroad was more, we don't think you'll fit in and follow the rules and you have to constantly prove that you can.

I didn't spend too much time in China so maybe it is a racist hell hole.

But my experience in Japan was that white immigrants were way more inclined to make a huge deal about the lighter racism they experienced because they had never been somewhere where their skin color was a disadvantage.

6mo agoHN ↗

"we don't think you'll fit in and follow the rules and you have to constantly prove that you can"

I speculate that if you were a permanent minority instead of a visiting inconvenience, then that 'nice' racism you describe would metastasize into the type of racism you see in the USA. It's more friction from time and exposure added on. And, you know, slavery.

6mo agoHN ↗

This is a weird argument. Japanese racism is fine because the Japanese are polite and apply it evenly?

6mo agoHN ↗

Despite what some on this site will argue, racism is always bad.

6mo agoHN ↗

There's a very big difference between xenophobia and racism. Racism is much worse.

6mo agoHN ↗

Xenophobia is as bad as racism. The fundamental difference between xenophobia and racism, it's that one is applied because of where you're from and the other your race. But you can receive the same downsides with both.

6mo agoHN ↗

What do you mean by racist? I'm a white/hispanic American and spent 3 months in China and didn't really notice anything problematic towards me.

6mo agoHN ↗

That's great, but it's pretty well known that racism exists in many forms in many countries. Just google "racism in china".

6mo agoHN ↗

get yelled at by people online because the Government wants to use your model

Well duh, as recently demonstrated, an US model used by the US gov will 100% end up murdering actual children sooner than later, in this case less than a calendar year in some far flung war that many Americans do not support. Alternatively PRC model used by CCP might kill in some hypothetical future but for national reunification/rejuvenation that many Chinese support. At the end of the day, researchers and population on one side sleeps more soundly.

6mo agoHN ↗

ICE has been detaining Chinese people in my area (and going door to door in at least one neighborhood where a lot of Chinese and Indians live). I was hearing about this just last week as word spread amongst the Chinese community here (Ohio) to make sure you have some legal documentation beyond just your driver's license on you at all times for protection. People will hear about this through the grapevine and it has a massive (and rightly so) chilling effect. US labs can try but with US government behaving like it is I don't think they will have much luck.

*edit: not that it matters, but since MAGA can't help but assume, these are all US citizens and green card holders that I am referring to.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yes. Yes, so true. And the phd types building these models are probably even scared in China that ICE will fly there to deport them.

6mo agoHN ↗

This thread is about bringing these people to the US.

6mo agoHN ↗

There's no huge reason to bring them to the US. Plenty of US corporations have maintain overseas offices. Even if its impolitic to employ them directly in China, you can employ them in other offices (for example, Amazon has been known to do this with their Singapore offices)

6mo agoHN ↗

This thread is largely pointless political back-and-forth were predictably the comments with a more positive opinion on current US immigration enforcement will be flagged.

To get back to the original point, personally I doubt sentiment on US immigration enforcement would be so significant a deterrent for Chinese talent, who may not share the political views of the American left for whom this is a big concern.

6mo agoHN ↗

pointless political back-and-forth were predictably the comments with a more positive opinion on current US immigration enforcement will be flagged

Given the tactics employed by ICE, it's a true shock and horror that most people have more humanity than that.

But I guess a person who can't form a grammatically correct sentence is an example of the sort of people who can rest easy,

6mo agoHN ↗

Yeah, the Hyundai factory fiasco kind of dashed the idea that the enforcement would spare people working in favored industries setting up in the US.

6mo agoHN ↗

Allegedly, though the local labor unions seem to disagree. I guess we'll have to wait for the facts to come out in court.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yes, but the difference in degree, and how are material. The big showy Hyundai plant raid is an example of something that hasn't happened before. Under Obama there were I-9 audits of Infosys, and under Clinton there was a raid of a Filiberto's, but both of those weren't of foreign workers here to train Americans.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yes what's happening is totally normal, everybody does it all the time.

6mo agoHN ↗

Every developed country on earth has an immigration policy and an administration dedicated to enforcing it.

No other developed countries have masked goons abducting people in public wearing civil clothes and masks and disregarding every laws of the country (violating private property and foreign embassies, deporting national citizens, and numerous other preposterous bullshit).

Immigration policy enforcement is normal, the madness that has been running in the US for a year isn't.

6mo agoHN ↗

You have to show ID to pick up a prescription or open a bank account. You have to show ID for routine traffic stops. This is such a juvenile, tired argument.

6mo agoHN ↗

“You show ID at the bank” is a classic, juvenile and tired argument because it swaps in a voluntary transaction for state coercion.

The concern isn’t IDs exist—it’s who’s demanding them, in what context, and what happens if you can’t comply on the spot.

6mo agoHN ↗

Not to mention that the USA has a long history of looking down their nose at the USSR for doing exactly what the USA is doing now.

I forgot that HN is mostly filled with a younger generation that might not get the reference.

The "Papers, please." quote is a common trope in spy movies, books, etc... about the former Soviet Union.

6mo agoHN ↗

You absolutely do not have to show ID to pick up every prescription; just some, which is also dependent on state law, federal law, and pharmacy.

But also, I don't care if it's a tired argument--this isn't about how things are, it's about how we want them to be. I don't want to live in a state action-coerced society.

6mo agoHN ↗

In Sweden you have to use your Bank ID to take the buss. Meaning the bank has the same security as entering the bus. If you get robbed in Sweden they take your bank ID, use it to take a loan and then transfers all your money to a foreign bank. Because we got rid of manual cash.

6mo agoHN ↗

Can you expand on this? SL accepts any credit card for purchasing single tickets and I assume you can buy an SL card using cash in for example Seven Eleven? Also, the issue with bank ID when you are robbed is identical to any bank app anywhere, isn't it?

6mo agoHN ↗

Imagine if you forgot to bring your ID card to the bank, and they grabbed you and the next thing you knew, you were in a concentration camp in El Salvador.

6mo agoHN ↗

"Papers, please" is not just ID, but also authorization to travel internally. The idea that asking for ID* is anywhere equivalent is asinine.

*Reminder that folks visiting the US on a visa are legally required by the terms of said visa to always carry upon their person at least a copy of identity papers backing up that visa, and that this law has been in place for a very long time.

6mo agoHN ↗

There are 2 groups of new Chinese immigrants in the US, they are quite different:

1.Those who arrived through legal channels (most studied at U.S. universities and remained on H1B visas, with a smaller number through EB5 or other visa categories) and eventualy got green card.

2.Undocumented immigrants, which include several sub-groups/waves. In the 1990s, most came from just a couple provinces, Fujian and southern Zhejiang. After COVID, they were from different parts of China and entered through the southern border.

The contributors to AI development belong to the 1st group. They are spread across the country but a large number work in high-tech companies in Northern California.

The 2nd group was intially concentrated in New York and Southern California (Los Angeles area). Later they have expanded into nearby regions. They provide labor for Chinese-owned small businesses such as restaurants, grocery stores, and hotels.

There is an industry created largely by Chinese political dissidents helping Group 2 through asylum applications using fake materials and exploiting common Western beliefs or narratives about China like human rights concerns. For example, Alysa Liu’s father is an asylum lawyer.

ICE enforcement efforts would likely focus more on Group 2 if they are knowledgable. Ohio should not be a high-priority area. I could be wrong due to changes over time. One indicator you can observe: Are there many Chinese-owned small businesses in your area?

6mo agoHN ↗

ICE arrests citizens and legal immigrants on a regular basis. Only 5% of the people they arrested had an immigration related conviction on their record:

https://www.cato.org/blog/5-ice-detainees-have-violent-convi...

The Bay Area is mostly exempt for now because, after Trump announced ICE was going to surge in SF, a bunch of tech billionaires with economic interests in the region convinced him not to.

Also, over the last year, there have been a bunch of high-profile arrests of Ohioans by ICE. In one example, they arrested someone for showing up to their immigration hearing, leaving their young kid separated from them outside the court.

6mo agoHN ↗

They were operating in a traditional "China town" neighborhood for the detentions and the neighborhood they were going door to door in is one populated mostly by white collar professionals (tech, college professors, etc.).

6mo agoHN ↗

Yeah that was my first thought is it’s a tit for tat poach. They got the Gemini researcher so google responded in kind.

6mo agoHN ↗

Well, the problem aren't just the NSF funding cuts. Everyone else is already dumping truckloads of cash. There's also the public health situation (who wants measles or polio?), the risk of retaliatory attacks from the countries we're at war with, etc. You could write paragraphs about why the US is less attractive to researchers.

When I was a deep learning PhD in the first Trump administration, US universities were already very deeply affected by the Muslim ban, and so a lot of talent ended up in other countries.

Sibling commentators are rightfully pointing out that foreigners, especially those who would not be recognized as white, face an onerous and risky customs process with long-term and increasing risks of deportation. When you see a headline like the NIST labs abruptly restricting foreign scientists, _everything_ else feels uncertain. Even if someone doesn't believe they're personally at risk for deportation, they're still seeing everything else.

And then it all boils down to a reputational thing. The era where we were the top choice for research is in the past. If you start a PhD in the US on your resume during this era, you might be anticipating how you'll answe the question of why you weren't good enough to get accepted somewhere better.

6mo agoHN ↗

Where do researchers go instead of USA then? Genuinely curious

6mo agoHN ↗

Canada has always been appealing for people who were set on the United States but taken aback by the political climate. This goes back decades (famously in the AI space, Reagan is why Canada got Hinton instead of the US) but is exacerbated as of late. China also has pretty amazing investment in tech companies and research institutions, but Mandarin doesn't yet enjoy the same widespread adoption of English

Big caveat that I have the perspective of just one US-based former academic.

6mo agoHN ↗

If memory serves the father of the Chinese bomb studied in America and went back. It may be inconceivable to Americans but Chinese patriotism exists.

Besides you can live a comfortable life in PRC nowadays or live in a racist America.

6mo agoHN ↗

They already kind of do, but I think anyone who was into US money has already left for it, and the money China is throwing at the problem is pretty good also. You can also have a lot more influence in a Chinese company without having to adopt a weird new American corporate culture.

6mo agoHN ↗

Were they kneecapped by Anthropic blocking their distillation attempts?

6mo agoHN ↗

What Anthropic was complaining about is training on mass-elicited chat logs. It is very much a ToS violation (you aren't allowed to exploit the service for the purpose of building a competitor) so the complaint is well-founded but (1) it's not "distillation" properly understood; it can only feasibly extract the same kind of narrow knowledge you'd read out from chat logs, perhaps including primitive "let's think step by step" output (which are not true fine-tuned reasoning tokens); because you have no access to the actual weights; and (2) it's something Western AI firms are very much believed to do to one another and to Chinese models all the time anyway. Hence the brouhaha about Western models claiming to be DeepSeek when they answer in Chinese.

6mo agoHN ↗

The "distillation attacks" are mostly using Claude as LLM-as-a-judge. They are not training on the reasoning chains in a SFT fashion.

6mo agoHN ↗

So they're paying expensive input tokens to extract at best a tiny amount of information ("judgment") per request? That's even less like "distillation" than the other claim of them trying to figure out reasoning by asking the model to think step by step.

6mo agoHN ↗

LLM-as-a-judge is quite effective method to RL a model, similar to RLHF but more objective and scalable. But yes, anthropic is making it more serious than it is. Plus DeepSeek only did it for 125k requests, significantly less than the other labs, but Anthropic still listed them first to create FUD.

6mo agoHN ↗

Unless you know something we don't, Alibaba hasn't been accused of distilling or stealing any Anthropic assets.

6mo agoHN ↗

My conspiracy theory hat is that somehow investors with a stake in openai as well is sabotaging, like they did when kicking emad out of stabilityai

6mo agoHN ↗

More likely some high ranking party member's nepobaby from Gemini sniffed success with Qwen and the original folks just walked away as their reward disappeared.

6mo agoHN ↗

There is no source. But the party in China does have ultimate control.

There would never be an Anthropic/Pentagon situation in China, because in China there isn't actually separation between the military and any given AI company. The party is fully in control.

6mo agoHN ↗

apples v.s. oranges. The later is true, Emad did get sabotaged (for not being able to raise money in time, about 8-month before he's leaving). Junyang didn't have that long arc of incidents.

6mo agoHN ↗

Interesting reading this. It reminds me of my time in cryptocurrency sector. I suspected that some team members were paid by Ethereum folks to sabotage our project. Why do I suspect Ethereum? Because our project founders ended up switching to the Ethereum ecosystem and ignored/suppressed better solutions from their own ecosystem. I think there's something about tech hype which attracts these kinds of people who like to play dirty.

6mo agoHN ↗

Does anyone know when the small Qwen 3.5 models are going to be on OpenRouter?

6mo agoHN ↗

Like 4B, 2B, 9B. Supposedly they are surprisingly smart.

6mo agoHN ↗

Yep. The 9B has excellent image recognition. I showed it a PCB photo and it correctly identified all components and the board type from part numbers and shape. OCR quality was solid. Tool calling with opencode worked without issues, but general coding ability is still far from sonnet-tier. Asked it to add a feature to an existing react app, it couldn't produce an error-free build and fell into a delete-redo loop. Even when I fixed the errors, the UI looked really bad. A more explicit prompt probably would have helped. Opus one-shotted it, same prompt, the component looked exactly as expected.

But I'll be running this locally for note summarization, code review, and OCR. Very coherent for its size.

6mo agoHN ↗

Very coherent for its size.

I found them to be less than stellar at writing coherent prose. Qwen 3.5 9b was worse in my tests than Gemma 3 4b.

6mo agoHN ↗

I would second that Qwen3.5 is exceptionally good. In a calibration, it (35b variant) was running locally with Ada NextGen 24GB to do the same things with easy-llm-cli in comparison with gemini-cli + Gemini 3 Pro, they were at par … really impressive it ran pretty fast …

6mo agoHN ↗

q4 quant gives you 175 tg and 7K pp, beats most cloud providers

6mo agoHN ↗

There has been tension between Qwen's research team and Alibaba's product team, say the Qwen App. And recently, Alibaba tried to impose DAU as a KPI. It's understandable that a company like Alibaba would force a change of product strategy for any number of reasons. What puzzled me is why they would push out the key members of their research team. Didn't the industry have a shortage of model researchers and builders?

6mo agoHN ↗

Perhaps they wanted future Qwen models to be closed and proprietary, and the authors couldn't abide by that.

6mo agoHN ↗

Results as good as Qwen has been posting would seem to trigger a power struggle.

I think companies that don’t navigate these correctly eventually lose.

6mo agoHN ↗

what the hell, their models were promising tho

6mo agoHN ↗

I am singularly impressed by 35B/A3, hope that is not the reason he had to leave.

6mo agoHN ↗

I wonder if an american company poached one/all of them. They've been pretty much bleeding edge of open models and would not surprise me if Amazon or Google snatched them up

6mo agoHN ↗

It would surprise me if they're willing to come to the US in the setting of the current DHS and ICE situation.

6mo agoHN ↗

One thing I’ve noticed with local models is that people tolerate a lot more trial and error behavior. When a hosted model wastes tokens it feels expensive, but when a local model loops a bit it just feels like it’s “thinking.”

If models like Qwen can get good enough for coding tasks locally, the real shift might be economic rather than purely capability.

6mo agoHN ↗

Wasted tokens are preferred for local models, I need the GPU mainframe in my bedroom to heat it as I live in a third world country with unreliable heating (Switzerland).

6mo agoHN ↗

It sounds like the lead was demoted to attract new talent, quit as a result, and the rest of the team also resigned to force management to change their minds.

If so, I'm happy that the team held together, and I hope that endogenous tech leads get to control their own career and tech destiny after hard work leads to great products. (It's almost as inspiring as tank man, and the tank commanders who tried to avoid harming him...)

(ducking the downvote for challenging the primacy of equity...)

6mo agoHN ↗

Wherever they end up next, I hope they can stick together as a team and that they keep insisting on publishing their models.

6mo agoHN ↗

As a mathematician, lately I experimented a lot with Qwen, to produce as good as possible professional summaries and relations between articles, and in one case even a verification of misattributions claims which was used in an arXiv article.

All is collected in https://imar.ro/~mbuliga/ai-talks.html

6mo agoHN ↗

open blogpost → ⌘ + F "pelican" → 0 results ???

6mo agoHN ↗

First, thank you Junyang and Qwen team for your incredible work. You deserve better.

This is sad for local LLM community. First we lost wizardLM, Yi and others, then we lost Llama and others, now we lost Qwen...

6mo agoHN ↗

How do those companies make money? Qwen, GLM, Kimi, etc all released for free. I have no experience in the field, but from reading HN alone my impression was training is exceptionally costly and inference can be barely made profitable. How/why do they fund ongoing development of those models? I'd understand if they release some of their less capable models for street cred, but they release all their work for free.

6mo agoHN ↗

Ostensibly, a mix of VC funding and that they host an endpoint that lets them run the big (200+GB) models on their infrastructure rather than having to build machines with hundreds of gigs of llm-dedicated memory.

6mo agoHN ↗

But on inference they have to compete with other inference provider that just has a homepage, a bunch of GPUs running vllm and none of the training cost. Their only real advantage are the performance optimizations that they might have implemented in their inference clusters and not made public

6mo agoHN ↗

Qwen, at least, IIRC has some proprietary models, specifically the Max series. IIRC these have larger context windows.

6mo agoHN ↗

The small spend may be worth it to destroy US proprietary AI companies.

6mo agoHN ↗

Chinese companies don't always operate on purely capitalistic principles, there is sometimes government direction in the background.

For China, the country, it's a good thing if American AI companies have to scramble to compete with Chinese open models. It might not be massively profitable for the companies producing said models, but that's only a part of the equation

6mo agoHN ↗

China seems to combine the best points of capitalism (many companies taking many shots on goal, instead of the eastern bloc way of one centrally-mandated solution that either works or not) with the best points of communism (state-sponsored industries that don't have to generate a profit, for the glory and benefit of the state).

6mo agoHN ↗

There is a certain advantage to being able to go "I want a factory city here, that will manufacture ... Toasters"

6mo agoHN ↗

How do US tech companies make money? They don't until the competition has been starved.

6mo agoHN ↗

As someone active in both English and Chinese media, I always feel like who relying on only one is brainwashing, just like Wumao. There's no difference here; it's always about the government control,destroying US company... In reality, free services have always been a competitive strategy for businesses in China, from ride-hailing to bike-sharing, all about grabbing market share and competing for potential users. Daily active users are what Chinese companies care about most.