It’s not a bet, it’s just mania. There’s no rational basis for any of this, the entire thing is artificial. This impending disaster has more aligned with an oddly missing bubble in their diagram…the 2008 housing bubble.
I think we’re at the phase were people are trying to make wash their hands of culpability. That the bubble was not rammed down by a small group of people and was not entirely illogical when examined by more than 5 seconds of care, so that people can point to this in a little bit and go, “Nobody could see this coming!”
The real tragedy is not just the jobs and the economic destruction that we’re going to see, but the fact that this tech actually has some pretty cool use cases and it’s almost certainly going to get burned as when things like this collapse it just takes everything down with it.
open models won’t burn. local aficionados won’t stop using local. low cost low hardware requirements will become more of a focus as a push for embedded models that compartmentalize ai functions will be the boon. the markets may crash, but the knowledge and current hardware owned won’t
Yet the market can remain irrational for much longer than we can reason about.
The numbers are, as you (and Ed Zitron) point out, bananas, and the financial house of cards will collapse -- but there is enough fin-de-siecle chaos happening right now that anything is possible.
AI seems to be particularly useful in murdering people, so, for example, if there were another globe-wide hot war, it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In which case, the "bezzle" continues until the state collapses, whenever that is (depends who wins the war ;D)
The original sin of any modern forecast is proceeding from reason and sensibility. Now is the hour of the batshit.
Yet the market can remain irrational for much longer than we can reason about.
It's already overdue.
it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In the USA? Maybe. In its adversaries? Definitely no. Thanks to Trump's "Make America Negligible Again" campaign being extremely successful.
Adversaries and enemies alike, no exception, nobody trusts US any more, so everyone is already building their own stuff to get independent ASAP. Tech-bros have already lost their influence outside of the US.
I’ve used LLMs dozens of times a day, everyday since about 3.5 and that’s just for my personal use cases not even including work. There is a weak argument to be made right now that coding is solved. Physical AI is exploding right now with robots getting tantalizingly close to actually being workers irl. What the hell are you talking about?
Archive: http://archive.today/7RPo3
It’s not a bet, it’s just mania. There’s no rational basis for any of this, the entire thing is artificial. This impending disaster has more aligned with an oddly missing bubble in their diagram…the 2008 housing bubble.
I think we’re at the phase were people are trying to make wash their hands of culpability. That the bubble was not rammed down by a small group of people and was not entirely illogical when examined by more than 5 seconds of care, so that people can point to this in a little bit and go, “Nobody could see this coming!”
The real tragedy is not just the jobs and the economic destruction that we’re going to see, but the fact that this tech actually has some pretty cool use cases and it’s almost certainly going to get burned as when things like this collapse it just takes everything down with it.
open models won’t burn. local aficionados won’t stop using local. low cost low hardware requirements will become more of a focus as a push for embedded models that compartmentalize ai functions will be the boon. the markets may crash, but the knowledge and current hardware owned won’t
Yet the market can remain irrational for much longer than we can reason about.
The numbers are, as you (and Ed Zitron) point out, bananas, and the financial house of cards will collapse -- but there is enough fin-de-siecle chaos happening right now that anything is possible.
AI seems to be particularly useful in murdering people, so, for example, if there were another globe-wide hot war, it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In which case, the "bezzle" continues until the state collapses, whenever that is (depends who wins the war ;D)
The original sin of any modern forecast is proceeding from reason and sensibility. Now is the hour of the batshit.
It's already overdue.
In the USA? Maybe. In its adversaries? Definitely no. Thanks to Trump's "Make America Negligible Again" campaign being extremely successful.
Adversaries and enemies alike, no exception, nobody trusts US any more, so everyone is already building their own stuff to get independent ASAP. Tech-bros have already lost their influence outside of the US.
I’ve used LLMs dozens of times a day, everyday since about 3.5 and that’s just for my personal use cases not even including work. There is a weak argument to be made right now that coding is solved. Physical AI is exploding right now with robots getting tantalizingly close to actually being workers irl. What the hell are you talking about?