Whether by your strict definition or not AGI is here is immaterial. For 90%+ of humanity AGI is here today, they act like it does and they use it as if it is. Geoffrey Hinton in a recent interview said that according to him it is still a year or so out, but that seems to ignore the fact that he's one of the smartest people on the planet, so he is one of the last to be 'caught up with'.
If you have the knowledge of a very significant fraction of humanity at your fingertips, reasonably strong reasoning abilities, if you can speedread at 1500 words / minute without dropping a beat and if you can write at 200+ characters per second you can get more done in an hour than a normal person can get done in a day.
So I would suggest we start thinking about how to do all those things that we should have done years ago (such as to create ways to safely deploy this tech) now. It's not going to go away, like every other technology bad version 1.0 will give way to much improved version 2.0 and so on, and in five years time you won't recognize the landscape.
Stop waiting for 'your' AGI. You most likely are in that top 10%.
But that's according to your definition of AGI. According to OP's definition, stochastic word generation is the pinnacle of intelligence, the place where we should "stop waiting for 'our' AGI". Too bad he stopped there for his own.
I understand why people, even technical ones, give in to the hype. I sometimes do too when I look at the agent spinning, talking to itself as if it's an internal monologue and coming up with actions with real side effects on its own.
But when they start blogging or writing about AGI, especially _if_ they are technical, I wonder why don't they go just one, or at most two layers deep and try to understand why this generally intelligent contraption sometimes happily executes `rm -rf /` and then nonchalantly apologizes after the fact. They liken these slips to the same kind of mistakes humans do, but they are fundamentally different.
Human failure modes are predictable from their skill level. Humans also carry emotional baggage and they weigh the cost of the mistakes they bear depending on their privileges.
For an LLM "rm -rf /" is rare and unpredictable, but "I am sorry" after it is almost certain because they were trained on dialogs and they get better score for "I am sorry" than "that wasn't my fault".
There's no good definition. To some people it literally means "artificial general intelligence". If you agree that toddlers and dogs have general intelligence at a low level (and most do), that low bar has been met IMO.
Some people think it means "better than human intelligence in every way". We'll be able to find niches that humans are better at for a very long time, so that definition hasn't been met, but is getting increasingly pedantic.
Some people think it means "smart enough to improve itself independently, thus triggering the singularity". The frontier labs are using AI to help improve itself, but it's not working independently, yet, AFAICT. So that definition isn't met yet.
I just had meta's muse agent run my entire groups marketing campaign for my new app, it brought in 500 users in 2 weeks...it read the rules, advised on best posting practices on a per group basis and saved the notes and data for each group into a spreadsheet for future posts, then it created instagram videos and reels that are amazing and posted those to instagram and tiktok for me and it is creating a Kiva crowdfunding campaign for me....I don't know what else is required for AGI but that pretty much replaces the need for a personal assistant imho...
1. You can't move goalposts to fit your narrative. AGI is here iff your definition of general intelligence is very limited. LLMs are nowhere near general human intelligence, so by many definition AGI is not here.
2. If AGI is here, so what? What are you saying we should do? What exactly are you selling? Why did you feel the urge to give us a heads up?
If you have the knowledge of a very significant fraction of humanity at your fingertips, reasonably strong reasoning abilities, if you can speedread at 1500 words / minute without dropping a beat and if you can write at 200+ characters per second you can get more done in an hour than a normal person can get done in a day.
So I would suggest we start thinking about how to do all those things that we should have done years ago (such as to create ways to safely deploy this tech) now. It's not going to go away, like every other technology bad version 1.0 will give way to much improved version 2.0 and so on, and in five years time you won't recognize the landscape.
Stop waiting for 'your' AGI. You most likely are in that top 10%.
I disagree with the first paragraph, agree with the second, and am not very hopeful about the third.
Finally. Can we go eat something now?
Faster autocomplete doesn't make an AGI. We don't redefine the airplane just because high-speed rail is fast enough for 90% of commuters.
Happy to hear but I got to go because my forza download has just completed
So why do humans keep trying to make a better LLM when the LLM is generally intelligent and should be able to make its own smarter LLM?
But that's according to your definition of AGI. According to OP's definition, stochastic word generation is the pinnacle of intelligence, the place where we should "stop waiting for 'our' AGI". Too bad he stopped there for his own.
I understand why people, even technical ones, give in to the hype. I sometimes do too when I look at the agent spinning, talking to itself as if it's an internal monologue and coming up with actions with real side effects on its own.
But when they start blogging or writing about AGI, especially _if_ they are technical, I wonder why don't they go just one, or at most two layers deep and try to understand why this generally intelligent contraption sometimes happily executes `rm -rf /` and then nonchalantly apologizes after the fact. They liken these slips to the same kind of mistakes humans do, but they are fundamentally different.
Human failure modes are predictable from their skill level. Humans also carry emotional baggage and they weigh the cost of the mistakes they bear depending on their privileges.
For an LLM "rm -rf /" is rare and unpredictable, but "I am sorry" after it is almost certain because they were trained on dialogs and they get better score for "I am sorry" than "that wasn't my fault".
Psychosis is here
You forgot “Tell HN:”
"Peter, the cult is here."
Motion, not progress. So much talk of 100x and 1000x engineers, so little to show for it.
There's no good definition. To some people it literally means "artificial general intelligence". If you agree that toddlers and dogs have general intelligence at a low level (and most do), that low bar has been met IMO.
Some people think it means "better than human intelligence in every way". We'll be able to find niches that humans are better at for a very long time, so that definition hasn't been met, but is getting increasingly pedantic.
Some people think it means "smart enough to improve itself independently, thus triggering the singularity". The frontier labs are using AI to help improve itself, but it's not working independently, yet, AFAICT. So that definition isn't met yet.
Lowest effort troll post I think I’ve ever seen boosted to the front page on HN.
I’m sure we top it soon though.
LOL.
On a more serious note: I don't think so.
I'm happily using the clanker all day every day, but that dumb piece of shit is definitely not an AGI.
A baby can identify most apples in the real world, after showing him just several pictures of them. And that's just the tip of general intelligence.
If AGI is here, the consequences of achieving AGI are largely disappointing.
90%+ of humanity is dumb as rocks and wouldn't know "AI" or "AGI" from baby's first line of JavaScript.
I just had meta's muse agent run my entire groups marketing campaign for my new app, it brought in 500 users in 2 weeks...it read the rules, advised on best posting practices on a per group basis and saved the notes and data for each group into a spreadsheet for future posts, then it created instagram videos and reels that are amazing and posted those to instagram and tiktok for me and it is creating a Kiva crowdfunding campaign for me....I don't know what else is required for AGI but that pretty much replaces the need for a personal assistant imho...
AI is just a really fancy calculator that can run cron jobs
I wonder how many here or elsewhere care about Hinton (or others) predictions, not many I hope.
1. You can't move goalposts to fit your narrative. AGI is here iff your definition of general intelligence is very limited. LLMs are nowhere near general human intelligence, so by many definition AGI is not here.
2. If AGI is here, so what? What are you saying we should do? What exactly are you selling? Why did you feel the urge to give us a heads up?