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Watermarking sounds like a good idea, but it's not. Token drift from watermarking will degrade the quality of outputs and could allow clever people to circumvent guardrails.
You should assume all text is AI generated. If you want to "test" someone at school or during an interview, have them write with a pencil and paper.
Changing a random seed could either improve or degrade the output. In theory, better and worse outputs should be equally probable, depending on your luck.
This is getting tiring. Watermarking has no effect on model output quality when implemented correctly. It's somewhat like swapping a random RNG seed to the seed 42, and detecting what the seed was from a random sequence. The sequence generated from the seed 42 is just as random as any other seed. There couldn't be a quality difference. And yes, the output from an LLM is a conditional random sequence of tokens from a distribution determined by a model.
Model companies are doing this for themselves anyways, it’s so they don’t feed generated content back into the slopper and collapse the model. From that angle it over time contributes to better model quality.
Also - it forms a cartel.
Detection of watermarking requires access to the watermarking key, a secret in the current suggested scheme (leaking it would amount to being able to strip the watermark).
So, there will need to be a watermark checking service. The checking service will of course be rate-limited for common folk (and model distillers). OpenAI/Anthropic/Google/other privileged model builders need to filter out AI slop at scale, so need access to others' service without rate-limits (or the watermarking keys need to be shared).
This creates an in-group with pristine datasets, and an outgroup whose models will collapse on the slop outputs with no good ability to filter.
The article has a pretty decent summary of the watermarking algo though. This reads as a pretty dogmatic statement in comparison.
In your analogy: What if seed 42 specifically causes poor quality behaviour (in some contexts specifically). Normally, these quality differences will be washed out because the seed is random, now it is no longer random, so shouldnt we check into specific behaviour under this specific seed?
That's not true. Watermarks are messing with the next token generation probabilities based on some random seed. The quality is neccesarily lower, the difference is simply too small to notice, typically.
No, the probability distribution is the same. Watermarking changes the rng sequence used to pick from that distribution.
“When implemented correctly” is probably what people are complaining about.
Opus 5 started adding a bunch of comments to code, even when instructed not to, and for very simple changes where the comment itself was longer than the code change. Was that so that there are enough tokens outputted for watermarking? Many people suspected so.
So that's where that nonsense comes from...
Am I missing something, or did they actually completely misunderstand how this technology works?
More likely you misunderstood it than them.
It’s hard to tell because the writing quality is garbage.
Second paragraph:
This is a stretch. True, but barely. The LLM is making slightly different choices near the end of the token generation process.
Claim support, if it appears, is pages later.
?
Wtf. Non-sequitor. Where does this come from?
Duh? In the literal sense of outputting different tokens.
I think they should have used an LLM for writing help, or paid more for the one they used.
watermarking is great tho
In _1984_ the Big Brother regime has the idea that by controlling language you can influence what is possible to think, and thus becomes a key tool of political repression.
Political Correctness has a similar idea that by adjusting the terminology we use, we can purge biases and historical implications and speak in a purer way.
Psychoanalysis has its own idea of repression - where a person struggles to BLOCK our associations between ideas, memories, and words in order to try to stop one thought from being contaminated by another, intolerable thought.
All of these attempts to control language are fundamentally misguided at best, often have severe unintended consequences, and are genuinely immoral at worse.
I am unable to understand what happens if the watermarked output goes as input to another agent. Let's say we asked Claude a question and got a watermarked response. If we pick that response and append it to the question we're asking ChatGPT, then will it answer or refuse to do so?
If that's the case, then it's a brilliant strategy by the labs to cut down cross-AI usage and just stick to one model. But I'm pretty sure this won't be the case.
This article reads like it was written at least partly by AI to me. Specifically it reads like an article written by AI with edits made by a human further prompting the AI.
Relevance and irrelevance are not introduced above this comment. This reads like an LLM-ism (particularly a GPT-ism) editing a document, removing something, and leaving a note about why it was removed, which doesn't really make sense when reading it.
Also a GPT-ism which appears when it draws a counter-conclusion in the text because it feels the need to be honest and a human tells it to remove it because it's not true because of "reason".
Overall interesting research, however, I think it's great that model output is getting watermarked. I was skeptical of this at first, but Opus 5.5 is so good, it seems like it's a non-issue in practice.
The reason I think watermarking is great is because it's a really good way of preventing training on it's own output indiscriminately and Ouroboros-ing itself.
Pangram flags it as mostly AI.