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EV Sales Are Booming in Europe with Gasoline at $10 a Gallon

46 pointsby 3h agobloomberg.com
59 comments
1h agoHN ↗

It's a shame the archive links don't display the graphs, Bloomberg's are usually quite informative.

2h agoHN ↗

I mean, I feel like even if petrol wasn't as expensive as it is, the sales would be booming anyway, maybe a sliver slower - for the simple reason that affordable EVs are now here and they are pretty damn good now. After years and years of lamenting "where are the EVs for your average Joe Smith" - they are now here. Funnily enough, they aren't made by Volkswagen or Peugeot, but they are here anyway. And Europe's cheapest new car - Dacia Spring - is an EV.

2h agoHN ↗

Im on the verge of switching from PHEV to full EV. I just need a reasonably affordable EV with 450+ mile of range.

2h agoHN ↗

Why do you need that much range and what are you looking at that is anywhere near that?

2h agoHN ↗

It's better for the body to keep driving sessions to 3-4 hours max before you get up walk around and charge a bit. 330 mile range is more than enough. If you only use 60% of the battery to maximize its lifespan you can drive for 3.5 hours roughly before you deplete a battery from 80% -> 20%.

1h agoHN ↗

There are a number of plausible rural drives in north america which do not have fast chargers for over 400 miles. EV infrastructure in the US is primarily concentrated on high-volume highways.

1h agoHN ↗

Can you actually name some? Last time I looked the highest I could find was like 100 miles.

1h agoHN ↗

Sioux City IA to Lusk WY -- 471 miles between chargers

Kalispell MT to Minot ND -- 688 miles between chargers

Anything in Alaska that isn't along the route from Anchorage to Fairbanks

Much of Ontario 11

All of Newfoundland

Of course, they're not high traffic routes, but these are places you can still easily find gasoline.

1h agoHN ↗

Not to mention all of those places are cold, which affects your range.

1h agoHN ↗

Taking an EV on US Forest roads sounds like a creative way to get stranded and die.

59m agoHN ↗

Aside from the routes the sibling comments mention, you also need to factor in the very real possibility that the chargers won't be functioning. It has gotten better but breakdowns still happen.

20m agoHN ↗

There are stretches of highway in the continental US that are >100 miles between exits, never mind chargers. That is almost a defining feature of the American West.

More importantly, these highways can be closed at unpredictable times for an unpredictable duration. It is not guaranteed that the route you planned is the route will take.

1h agoHN ↗

I don’t think people understand how convenient it is to be able to go 1000+ KM without thinking about filling up or charging, even if it isn’t in one trip.

I could do it in a 2002 Jetta. Why can’t I do it in a vehicle 25 years newer?

1h agoHN ↗

That’s about 9 hours of driving. Don’t you need to stop at least once to take a leak?

1h agoHN ↗

I used to do a ~700KM trip fairly regularly without stopping.

Like I said though, the whole convenience isn’t just single trip range.

1h agoHN ↗

I can get about that on a tank of gas in my cmax. I wouldn't drive it non stop, but it means I can fill up before a long (for me) trip, drive a few hours, stop for food and restrooms, and drive on to my destination without stopping for gas. If it's not that long, I may be able to drive back too, without filling up.

If there's a charger close enough to a restaurant you'll eat at, that sounds convenient, and I've seen a lot more chargers on my long distance drives... but usually not at the restaurants I want to go to.

1h agoHN ↗

Exactly. Maybe it is just me, but with a range around 450km I feel like I’m planning trips around filling up. It’s something I never thought about before.

Now I am stuck in line ups for gas because I can’t decide I don’t need it. This is true even just around town.

Maybe it’s a first world issue. It gets better all the time though. Maybe next car.

1h agoHN ↗

Don’t you need to stop at least once to take a leak?

Not if you have the right plumbing and a bottle with you.

54m agoHN ↗

I've driven that long without an extended break beyond running to the bathroom and grabbing a snack. Even a fast charger won't get you much in 3 minutes or so.

I've also been on 24+ hour trips where we switched off drivers every 6 hours or so. Stopping too long for too many times on a trip like that adds up.

13m agoHN ↗

That’s a normal run for long-distance driving in the US. You stop for only a few minutes when you run out of fuel to fill the tank, which may coincide with a concurrent bathroom break. I don’t know anyone that regularly makes 20-30 minute stops on these kinds of trips even once. That adds up to a lot of unnecessary lost time.

Human endurance is more about the end-to-end time. Breaks barely help at all.

1h agoHN ↗

is more than enough

This attitude of dictating others' car needs for them is one of the biggest hindrances to EV adoption and is also why rolling back CAFE regulations is going to be more popular than you think it is.

The general public doesn't like being told what to do.

47m agoHN ↗

The real cause of people's frustration with the US car market isn't CAFE, but the fact that the car market in the US is bifurcated by class and heavily financially engineered. The reason you can't get a cheap car in the US is entirely because US manufacturers are dictating what people can buy -- why give the middle class affordable options when you can make more money by squeezing them for cash for 84 months? What are they going to do, ride the non-existent bus?

1h agoHN ↗

The Chevy Silverado EV will go 492 miles.

With a 30 year mortgage the $56K base model payments could be doable.

1h agoHN ↗

Im curious - why do you need 450 miles of range?

My tesla goes 3 hours at 80mph. I can get to any charger I need. There are considerably more than I ever imagined.

39m agoHN ↗

In the US that would be many parts of the Mountain West, for example, though it is not the only region where it applies.

Unpredictable closures of highways can happen in the middle of nowhere after you’ve already been driving for 3 hours. I’ve had unplanned detours of up to 150 miles more than once. It is more common than people expect.

There are stretches of highway where it is 100+ miles between gas stations, never mind chargers, so it becomes a range risk even for ICE cars. I’m not the OP but when I’m driving in that part of North America I try to keep my range above 200 miles for this reason. It has saved me from being stranded more than once.

Alternatively, a backup plan for people with experience in those areas is to use ranch and forestry trails to route around the highway closures if feasible. This requires a vehicle suitable for that terrain. Few if any EVs are.

That said, most Americans rarely do long-haul driving in the backwaters of the American West. But if you do it enough, high ground clearance and reliable 400+ miles range in all weather conditions is a safety requirement.

The only reason I don’t have an EV is that most of my driving miles are like that. I don’t drive in the city where I live. No EV currently made credibly delivers that kind of performance but a lot of cheap ICE vehicles do.

Eventually EVs will get there but they aren’t there today.

1h agoHN ↗

The only EVs that offer this range are going to be very expensive. They'll either be from pricey companies like Lucid or they'll be extended-range vehicles from other makers. Are there any under $50k? Most are probably over $60k, and some will be double that.

1h agoHN ↗

You're delusional if you think an EV is affordable for an average person. The average person barely makes enough to cover rent, food, bills and save a little money - 15-30k EUR for an entry level EV is out of question. Meanwhile most people can afford to get a late 90s/early 00s used car that will actually get the job done.

1h agoHN ↗

In the uk, there can be good deals on used EVs. My Hyundai Kona EV (64kWh) (2022 plate) was £18K for a 18 month old car with 9K miles on the clock and lots of options. It does about 280 miles on a charge and I do have the advantage of cheap home charging (8p per kWh) so it’s under a £5 for my weekly commute.

A big step up from my old Ford fiesta, just look for the deals

53m agoHN ↗

> 15-30k EUR for an entry level EV is out of question

My Hyundai Kona EV (64kWh) (2022 plate) was £18K

Completely fkn tone deaf.

27m agoHN ↗

£18k is something like 60% of the median income in the UK after taxes. And that doesn’t even include the other associated costs. Average people would view that as a major expense.

Many people don’t have the elasticity in their month-to-month expenses that is assumed here.

1h agoHN ↗

Average fleet age in EU looks to be around 13 years so when you say "most people", you're likely off by 10-15 years in terms of second hand purchases. Greece might be the only EU country that gets close to what you said. I get the point about affordability but it's good to base discussion on facts.

Also, EVs have been around for quite a few years now so it is no longer necessary to buy them new.

https://www.acea.auto/publication/report-vehicles-on-europea...

50m agoHN ↗

Buying an EV outside of the factory warranty period is not an experiment I’d be interested in participating.

What do you do when, say, the insulation on the motor’s windings disintegrates over night on a whole production run of thousands of cars.

Or the batteries turn out to a fail at some yet to be revealed number of charge cycles.

44m agoHN ↗

These are pretty rare failure modes.

ICE engines eat themselves in many more different kinds of weird ways: timing chains and belts, coolant leaks, any number of problems with valves and actuators. They're extraordinarily complex devices and it's a testament to engineering genius (and persistence) that we've made them this reliable. But they fail much more often than batteries or motors. They have many more moving parts. It's just the devil we know.

I've got two EVs. Basically zero problems. I've known one or two people who have had issues, but never with the drive train. Always something dumb like the "infotainment system" or (for a Tesla owning friend) stupid buzzing and vibration they couldn't make go away and stupid problems with door handles.

The Tesla weirdness is part of why I went with Nissans. They're 100% normal cars except for the electric drive train. All the other parts can be purchased at AutoZone and everything else can be worked on by a normal mechanic.

There's some mechanics in my area that have been learning how to do stuff with EVs like aftermarket battery upgrades on older models, but it's a bit expensive. Mine are 5 and 13 years old respectively and both batteries are fine. The 5yo one is the same as the day it was bought. The latter's lost some capacity but still very usable as a city car.

1h agoHN ↗

Not in rural Europe it isn't.

There is still no widespread charging infra. Oh sure, there are chargers. If you're lucky and your town is on a state highway there might be one or two chargers in the entire town — their purpose being so visitors don't become stranded.

Outside of cities, they are not there in sufficient quantity for widespread adoption.

The apartment problem has not been solved either, and people do not have the time in their lives to dedicate to charging at a shared public charger.

Europe still loves its compact manual transmission cars; but what we may see is a transition away from diesel to petrol vehicles strictly for cost reasons.

1h agoHN ↗

that's fine; the issues that electric cars are trying to solve in congested urban areas aren't as prevalent in rural areas, where diesel engines are still going to be doing most of the work anyway

1h agoHN ↗

That's fair; but articles like this tend to view reality as black or white, rather than the grey area it is.

1h agoHN ↗

I would expect that in rural areas, it's much easier to simply charge at home. It's harder when you live in an apartment and park on the street.

24m agoHN ↗

ideally an apartment would have underground parking with chargers where needed. but i don't get to design cities irl :)

the distances traveled in rural areas, along with the power you need to get through that terrain, makes combustion a decision made from a different dimension. excited for solar tractors however!

1h agoHN ↗

The apartment problem has not been solved either, and people do not have the time in their lives to dedicate to charging at a shared public charger.

this looms much larger in the imagination than in reality given that the average urban European drives about 9-15km per day. If you're living in a space where charging space is in short supply you in all likelihood drive so little you maybe need to charge 3 times per month.

1h agoHN ↗

And this doesn’t even have to mean having to idly wait 20-30 minutes at a fast charger: Lots of shopping and work places have chargers now.

1h agoHN ↗

I’m not claiming this to be an entirely solved issue, but the situations in which EVs make sense are already very broad and keep expanding. The city I live in has lantern chargers (admittedly not everywhere), some others are building them into curbs. Apartment parking spaces and garages are getting chargers installed. If you live rurally, chances are high you can install your own.

1h agoHN ↗

Strangely I’d expect urban centers with apartments and street parking to be the problem.

In the US Electric vehicles are easier for those who can park a car next to an outlet they own. We have a lot more suburbia with people owning their own charging.

1h agoHN ↗

This was probably what people used to say about petrol stations.

48m agoHN ↗

And it would have been a legitimate issue at that time too.

50m agoHN ↗

Not in rural Europe it isn't. > There is still no widespread charging infra.

You can charge your car at home on a simple reinforced 230V socket. Even city car which should be bad for this purpose have at least 200km of range.

20m agoHN ↗

I charge mine on a 120 V 20 amp outlet in the US that was already in my garage… And it works fine for me

1h agoHN ↗

Who would have imagined that Vladimir Putin would oversee a sizeable NATO expansion, the reduction of European gas usage, and, in combination with Trump, the increased adoption of electric vehicles?

History may look back on them as having done rather a lot to move the world off of fossil fuels.

1h agoHN ↗

Piggybacking, talking about me!now but the last 5 years have shown me i know nothing

1h agoHN ↗

Just like how Genghis Khan was responsible for a brief global cooling.

1h agoHN ↗

EVs plus charging with a grid powered by solar when the sun shines bright at midday is one of the most powerful forces in averting anthropogenic climate change.

50m agoHN ↗

I would say removing the need for personal vehicles were possible would be a much more powerful force, but yours is much more practical at least short term (decade's time frame).

1h agoHN ↗

Gasoline would be $0.99 if EV platforms (build your own whatever) and low cost China Auto imports were available in America. But Elon has a hold on congress.

32m agoHN ↗

Those would hurt legacy auto much more than Tesla, which is why the last admin who had a lot of legacy auto union donations banned them. If anything Tesla will benefit from the charging infrastructure created due to a lot more EVs on the roads.

21m agoHN ↗

Being blunt, I don't think Elon is the only factor in that.

That protectionism is just as much in place for the sake of GM, Ford, and Stellantis, and their suppliers. In 2008 it was estimated that if the big three (Well, back then it was Chrysler instead of Stellantis) went under without a bailout [0], that up to 3 million jobs across the country were at risk. Michigan alone would have possibly lost over 8% of it's jobs.

We do see similar-ish protectionism in other countries as well, FWIW. Part of Toyota and Honda's lack of aggressive shifting to EVs is that a 'full shift' would remove millions of jobs from the workforce. Toyota has even published what could be considered propaganda in their home country about it [1].

It's an elephant in the room. European automakers are all struggling with it too, with various degrees of failure.

If there is one irony I will point out, it's that if they had all been more aggressive about hybrid technology for at least the last 15 years, they could have at least kicked the can down the road. Which honestly may have helped; part of the problem is that when things like engine or transmission plants are built, the amortization of the costs between the factory itself, training workers, expected retooling etc is measured and planned in the 10-30ish year range. The complacency means they have a bunch of assets that would be unpaletable write-offs.

Cause, Let's face it; every carmaker could have at least been doing even basic hybrids for most of their non-truck models for over a decade, which aren't perfect but would have raised the bar for MPG and improved the economies of scale faster [2].

[0] - For whatever it's worth, Ford at the time did not need a bailout, but did ask for a line of credit that it never had to use in case the others totally collapsed, because if that had happened it would have been a huge impact to their suppliers.

[1] - https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyota-sneakily-spreads-a...

[2] - I'll point to the Ford Maverick, which initially launched at ~22K and got 35-40MPG in base configuration despite being a very large compact truck. IMO if the automakers got serious about the tech in 2010, we could have seen something at that price point at least 5 years sooner.

47m agoHN ↗

In Netherlands you could also get paid for charging your car. There is such thing called ERE Certificates - emission reduction unit certificate is generated by offsetting emissions. Pollutters have to buy them to offset the harm. It's up to 0.1 euro per KWh (electricity costs 0.28 euro per KWh), depending on the demand.

46m agoHN ↗

The Jeffrey Epstein Memorial War is the worst thing to ever hit the American auto industry and workers, since that industry is so far behind on EV adoption they'll never catch up to the Asian manufacturers.

It'll kill them, the Big 3 should be losing their everloving minds over it.