I like Noah's blog in general (this is a guest post), but I think that trying to precisely time and phase a new technological development you are watching from within is a fool's errand.
Just like when you upscale a picture 100 times by 200%, and then you zoom in and start seeing all these artifacts, so is the outcome of "recursive intelligence".
We are going to be stuck in a few years of delusion, but there will be some entertainment as a side effect. AI executives and researchers are going to delve even deeper into AI psychosis thinking that the equivalent of psychedelic trip-looking school buses at 4000x zoom of an orange cat's ass, except in the form of text, is actually something intelligent and we just don't have the capacity to understand the "super intelligence's thoughts", all the while pouring another few trillions.
Great analysis. Clearly shows "advancement" is not exponential but logarithmic. Hence, "We need to slow down!!" as a cover for stagnating improvements.
Asking where is the intelligence explosion suffers the same issue as the Gorman Paradox[1] - the question proceeded the explosion by six months. Timing explosions is like timing the market - infinitely harder than predicting eventual existence.
Recursive self-improvement needs to happen. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow, or in 10 years even, but it has to happen sometime in the near future, or we're kinda screwed.
Why say this? Well, of the plausible futures from here, the worst one is where AI is just good enough to make us all useless (or just destroy the pipeline of a critical mass of capable humans), but dumb enough that we don't get RSI. This might happen or not, but there's no way to predict when something that doesn't exist will, so it's one of those horrors that can keep you up at night. Some of those skeptical about RSI have likened it to the Great Filter.
I like Noah's blog in general (this is a guest post), but I think that trying to precisely time and phase a new technological development you are watching from within is a fool's errand.
Just like when you upscale a picture 100 times by 200%, and then you zoom in and start seeing all these artifacts, so is the outcome of "recursive intelligence".
We are going to be stuck in a few years of delusion, but there will be some entertainment as a side effect. AI executives and researchers are going to delve even deeper into AI psychosis thinking that the equivalent of psychedelic trip-looking school buses at 4000x zoom of an orange cat's ass, except in the form of text, is actually something intelligent and we just don't have the capacity to understand the "super intelligence's thoughts", all the while pouring another few trillions.
Great analysis. Clearly shows "advancement" is not exponential but logarithmic. Hence, "We need to slow down!!" as a cover for stagnating improvements.
Not where, when.
Asking where is the intelligence explosion suffers the same issue as the Gorman Paradox[1] - the question proceeded the explosion by six months. Timing explosions is like timing the market - infinitely harder than predicting eventual existence.
1. https://codemanship.wordpress.com/2025/12/14/the-gorman-para...
it seems that the big leap has already ended. Now its more cutting costs and improving speed. But maybe it is better this way...
Recursive self-improvement needs to happen. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow, or in 10 years even, but it has to happen sometime in the near future, or we're kinda screwed.
Why say this? Well, of the plausible futures from here, the worst one is where AI is just good enough to make us all useless (or just destroy the pipeline of a critical mass of capable humans), but dumb enough that we don't get RSI. This might happen or not, but there's no way to predict when something that doesn't exist will, so it's one of those horrors that can keep you up at night. Some of those skeptical about RSI have likened it to the Great Filter.