There is a lot of plausible deniability between some of the influencers on X and on HN who are covertly in on these AI IPOs and have an undisclosed allocation and will only disclose it on the day before or after these IPOs.
You know you're commenting on an article in one of the premier finance news publications in the world, right?
What "influencers on X and on HN" are you referring to in this comment, and why?
"Everything is a way to boost stock prices" is such an uncritical way to think that you will find it consistently promulgated by the drunkest person at the shittiest dive bar in the most backwater town in any state in the US.
Yeah, but "<company> at <ridiculously inflated price> is not far-fetched" is a great way to get people to think "it's not there now, but it will be", which is almost explicitly an attempt to boost stock prices.
Not everything is about stock prices, but some things are.
>SpaceX, meanwhile, trades at 16 times that year’s revenue. Take that as the benchmark — they are both companies with wild aspirations and charismatic leaders — and Anthropic could in future be worth $5tn.
SpaceX has a humongous moat in significant part of their business: launch and Starlink. They are so far ahead other players barely register. There are a lot of options connected to that moat. They also are good at building things fast and already have good infrastructure and are in position to build more.
This is not the case at all with Anthropic. Anthropic is very slightly ahead right now and some of their competitors have structural edges that are hard to overcome. For example Google has data and infra, SpaceX has infra an some unique data, Meta has a lot of data, infra and a cash machine to finance it all and operate at loss as long as they please.
That I think is the biggest problem for Anthropic. There is very little moat and competition is already close and very motivated to catch-up.
If I had to bet they will find buyers at 2T. Very liquid prediction markets are at 2.2T right now. I think they face uphill battle to justify that valuation even if AI sector continue to grow fast though.
This, plus the "whistleblowers" and Mythos scaremongering, seems like part of a marketing campaign to pump the IPO.
Someone is thinking critically.
There is a lot of plausible deniability between some of the influencers on X and on HN who are covertly in on these AI IPOs and have an undisclosed allocation and will only disclose it on the day before or after these IPOs.
You know you're commenting on an article in one of the premier finance news publications in the world, right?
What "influencers on X and on HN" are you referring to in this comment, and why?
"Everything is a way to boost stock prices" is such an uncritical way to think that you will find it consistently promulgated by the drunkest person at the shittiest dive bar in the most backwater town in any state in the US.
Yeah, but "<company> at <ridiculously inflated price> is not far-fetched" is a great way to get people to think "it's not there now, but it will be", which is almost explicitly an attempt to boost stock prices.
Not everything is about stock prices, but some things are.
i know what you mean, and it got me wondering, by what metric? i don't know that answer.
Just IPO already ffs so I can short.
go ahead rainbow ber
I'll sell you tons of puts and harvest theta from your ber ahh
Is this a sponsored post? All other FT's posts are paywalled, except this one.
My view on this:
SpaceX has a humongous moat in significant part of their business: launch and Starlink. They are so far ahead other players barely register. There are a lot of options connected to that moat. They also are good at building things fast and already have good infrastructure and are in position to build more.
This is not the case at all with Anthropic. Anthropic is very slightly ahead right now and some of their competitors have structural edges that are hard to overcome. For example Google has data and infra, SpaceX has infra an some unique data, Meta has a lot of data, infra and a cash machine to finance it all and operate at loss as long as they please.
That I think is the biggest problem for Anthropic. There is very little moat and competition is already close and very motivated to catch-up.
If I had to bet they will find buyers at 2T. Very liquid prediction markets are at 2.2T right now. I think they face uphill battle to justify that valuation even if AI sector continue to grow fast though.