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AGI hasn't arrived, all we have is Artifical General Marketing
AI hasn't arrived either. I always find it so weird how marketing suddenly redefines words and concepts.
I don't know how something that everyone can use and see with their own eyes can still cause people to be so delusional.
Like the very programmers who code with AI and no longer type code are saying AGI hasn't arrived.
It arrived years ago. And people are still in denial because it's on track to eat our identities as programmers.
For me, AGI is here.
ASI is not here, but AGI is.
A few years back if you asked me to build a system and just name the price, my question would be: What should it be able to answer? Whatever i want. I wouldn't have an idea how to build a system like this.
Today we do.
Would you add any context to your comment to even have an argument we can discuss?
Anthropic's Gross Income
We're not even close to RSI yet. Without human intervention, current models will still spin in circles reverting to the mean. This can be sufficient for most work though, as the mean for AI models is seemingly well above that of the average person. But genius still eludes it. Sure mathematics can be proved, and data can be mined for novel proteins, etc. But where are the AI symphonies? Where's the AI Great American Novel? Mediocrity machines is all they are, yet most of us are (by definition) mediocre, so it doesn't bode well.
Wikipedia has a good definition for it:
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks.[1] Unlike artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), whose competence is confined to well‑defined tasks, an AGI system can generalise knowledge, transfer skills between domains, and solve novel problems without task‑specific reprogramming."
I would argue that its not that relevant anymore what specific AGI definition you follow. The impact is already significant and real, progress hasn't stoped and the current chatbots can do arbitrary things without task-specific reprogramming.
Depending on the context size and your problem, i can also teach an chatbot new things adhoc without reprogramming.
Programmers think that because a slick piece of software is really good at writing code, it must obviously be really good at everything else. Nothing is more complex than the big brain shit they've been doing their whole lives.
Just for fun I asked ChatGPT this week to 'play' a screen shot of some sheet music into a WAV file.
And it did. Not by using a music OCR tool, but by inventing one.
No one is spending millions training frontier LLMs on symphony scores or literary fiction. But at this point I'm fairly sure they'd get workable results if they did.
I've been tracking music in AI for more than a decade, and this is the first time I've been able to say that.
When will any of those things be realised?
I'm seeing the precise opposite be reported by humans not engaged in growth marketing or techbro evangelism. Fewer job opportunities and career paths the world over, fewer incentives for private investors to invest in anything other than AI infrastructure, reduced access to consumer technology products, etc.
I have been hearing people say "[latest model] is AGI already, organizations just aren't leveraging it yet" all the way since GPT 4o. And people will probably continue making this claim every time a new frontier model comes out.
It's AGI. It's just stupid sometimes and genius sometimes as well.
We like to emphasize the stupid part and use that as proof agi hasn't arrived because it's comforting. Don't want to look at it while it eats us alive.
I have too, and I can't help but notice that the people saying this also happen to be quite eager to sell me the secret sauce for successfully leveraging it.
The thing they never seem to want to talk about is how the world already has several billion instances of non-artificial general intelligence. And, while they can collectively do quite a lot of different tasks, each one is only competent to do a vanishingly small percentage of all possible tasks. And that it usually takes quite a lot of work to get them to the point of being able to independently perform most of the interesting tasks. Because if we did talk about that then we'd have to start answering questions about why we expect artificial intelligence not to also be like that.
AI is very efficient when you ask them to do a specific, one-objective task. It has no independence whatsoever, that's why it cannot _replace_ humans. This is evident for anyone using AI routinely.
Of course this doesn't mean we may need less amount of humans for certain jobs, or that I'm the future AI will gain new abilities.
AI has largely not been trained to operate independently yet. Newer products like grok bot/meta muse point in the direction of an asynchronous "virtual worker" type of persona where the AI is empowered to make at least some decisions.
It can scale, humans can't.
One human needs to teach one AI system how to do one specific task. Everyone can now use this. Before you had to teach every single human having to do this task and the next generation.
[delayed]
Stopped reading there.
haha same
And that is proof that it has arrived; you no longer need to read anymore.
The coolest thing about a term that doesn't actually have a meaningful, agreed-upon definition is that you can write 3,700 words about it without doing much beyond explaining what you think it should mean.
Nice essay but the core point of AGI is that it will universally disempower humans in all domains, send the value of human labor to 0, and construct a world far beyond human comprehension that will be disorienting and horrifying.
An aligned AGI (or ASI) would construct a world far more just and abundant than what we currently have.
It could construct a world far more just and abundant. It would have thousands of options of what to do with the universe, trusting that it will spend time space and energy creating a human utopia is a matter of faith
hence the alignment problem
If we would have any idea about how aligment works.
I'd argue we can't align humans to neccessarily degree to ensure even semi stable future. Or nations, or corporations.
We 've been here before. This post-AGI era is a lot like the era of slavery. So what matters is basically the ownership of land (because you can use it to generate energy/compute, raw materials and build infrastructure on it). Bill Gates was right to invest in land.
Hail to the new feudalism!
did they make any money trading? couldn't tell from the blog