Yikes.

That is just mind boggling.

Beware the Y axis not starting at 0. But it's still an insane drop.

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Trump spoke about this publicly, promising he would "fill the reserves right up to the top", then when in power, didn't do that but instead started a war with Iran while the reserves were still low.

It's mind boggling how stupid it all is.

The counterpoint is that the US is producing more crude domestically than ever with more efficient drilling technology:

https://www.oilmonster.com/article/more-productive-wells-spu...

Insofar as I can tell what's really reflected here is a difference between Democrat and Republican policy positions. The Democrats want to minimize domestic environmental impact and be a net oil importer. Let someone else handle the dirty work of drilling. The Republicans are less concerned with the environmental impact and want to increase exports, oil jobs and economic sovereignty. With higher domestic production and less dependence on foreign states, such a large petroleum reserve is unnecessary.

I prefer the Republican position. It sucks to harm the environment. But it sucks more to enable some of the regimes we import oil from. They frequently are not close allies. We frequently end up immersing ourself in wars and other entanglements over this foreign oil. You want to stop the wars, you have to stop the dependence on imported oil. (To be clear I'm not arguing that Republicans will start less wars. I am arguing in favor of domestic oil production because it takes away a justification for them.)

The Democratic position exports the moral hazard to a place where Americans don't see it. Takes it out of their backyard. But frankly that is an immoral approach which both parties have taken repeatedly and it has undermined the health of the nation. The other case where this takes place at an absolutely massive scale is exporting certain types of jobs to other countries where labor standards are lax, and where slave labor takes place. People out there killed themselves while making iPhone or your shoes because the working conditions in those countries were so horrible. I am willing to pay a little more for shoes and buy a little bit fewer luxury goods so that I don't enable slave labor. Move the jobs back onshore where we can regulate the well being of the workers. We can't control it if it's in another country.

As has been predicted for months, I don’t recall where u read it but November has been in my brain for when this crisis is going to start.

I meant the Republican Party should care. I get why Trump doesn't.

The people in his admin certainly want to. It seems like Vance and Rubio are already subtley trying to position themselves for eventually running.

I don't share your optimism. I mean, yeah, he's doing to die soon, but his followers will just be suckered by the next con man who follows his very basic playbook.

There have been Republican elected representatives who have confronted Trump. With very few exceptions, they have gone down to defeat in subsequent Republican primary elections.

The Republican electorate will not stand for Trump being constrained or criticized by Republicans. That's why there are almost no remaining Republican elected officials who are willing to confront the Trump administration aside from a handful of lame ducks like Tillis and Massie.

Functionally, the Republican congress is unable to hold the Trump administration to account, because Republican voters have ensured that it cannot. The only way Trump will ever be constrained is via Democrats.

At this point I think they're planning on letting Democrats sweep the midterms, having things get even worse over the next 2 years, which is inevitable, and blaming the entire thing on Democratic obstruction. Their voters are dumb enough to believe it.

They aren't winning the midterms with this. Hopefully the grifter hopefuls will take the lesson to heart.

I think the general interpretation that both sides think something will change after the midterms is reasonable.

But

Iran et al are trying to hold out until the election

[Iran will] throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term

is something that I don't think even the most thoughtless parts of the administration really think right?

It's obvious that Iran is winning, not close to throwing in the towel. The US is reduced to trying to get the Straights of Hormuz open without paying a toll to Iran, which is a worse position than the US was in at the start of the war.

Iran and the Houthis both have to stop the war before all the Middle East supply chains start turning back on.

The US is winning on so many fronts these days, it’s getting hard to track. /s

Also price of oil isn't the only factor. Refineries going offline is a major factor in price at the pump, and there are a lot of refineries in the middle east. Its not just the price of unrefined oil.

Project 2025 fairly implicitly stated that the idea was to scuttle trust in the US government so badly that there would be a case for private equity to swoop in and save the day. That's what you're seeing.

Most of the draw down was after Russia invaded Ukraine. This drawdown is a swap of 1 barrel now for 1.25 barrels later. So the intention is to keep prices down now and get more oil back later for "free".

He is indistinguishable from an attack by hostile foreign agents. A very successful attack.

Brought to you by the epestein war

Crude oil demand peaks in summer, not winter

Trump got all the oil producers together in a room and put together a deal to restrict oil production during COVID.

This, naturally, resulted in higher oil prices, which the Republican party blamed Biden for.

They truly have no shame.

Diesel touched $8.99/gal this week. I want to know what happens when the sign runs out of digits at $10.

Is it tied to the cash register? Will the pumps run out of digits too? Will they still be able to sell gas?

One thing I can say: My F150 won’t care. It runs off solar.

If anyone knew for sure they would make a killing at the stock market.

However we dont know what the future holds. All sorts of factors affect what is going to happen. Will china continue to import less? Will the houthis be able to stop Saudi exports long term or is it just a short term issue? Will USA be able to guard ships passing through the strait? Will Iran face some sort of internal collapse? Will USA pack up and go home? Will other countries be drawn into this war?

Nobody can tell you what is really "going on" because nobody knows what the future holds and uncertainty is high.

The headline is hiding the fact that this was a fairly modest 400K bbl draw for the week.

Global oil prices haven't skyrocketed so far thanks to China inverting the OPEC strategy of keeping prices up by destroying supply.

China stopped/reduced buying, used their large reserves, EVs and now accelerating EV trucks. And also coal to liquids.

Eventually, China may have to start buying and thats when the fun begins.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/business/energy-environme...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks...

China is now the world’s great oil power. Forget OPEC. The Chinese Communist Party calls the shots. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158

We can simply get rid of most oil - Just ONE square mile of batteries and a TOTAL of 100 x 100 square miles of Solar can power the entire USA 24/7.

It is because of world wide adoption of EVs that the fossil fuel demand has reduced and stabilized gas prices in the US.

See : https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/batteries-have-unlo...