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2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2013: none?
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
Please use lists (even a long bullet list) instead of very long paragraphs.
My wish list:
* reproducable build for docker images
* generate randomized test cases for web flows
My big prediction is Docker hits the trough of disillusionment this year. It's just moving too fast, with too many immaturities for the enterprise. Everyone will kick off pilots, figure out everything is a mess, run back to VMware until things settle down.
The Docker model (containerization) won't die off even if Docker (the implementation) is wrong. And if containerization is better, faster, lighter than full-blown VM then we would return to VMware only because they did containerization better than Docker. If I were to predict, I'd say this is the Year of Containers. (And it'd be seen in how programming languages, fault-tolerant systems implement error handling.)
Containerization is indeed better, for those applications that work well in containers. Many applications don't always behave well in containers, and the container model requires not only that your app work in container environments, but that your development and deployment process works with containers.
I suspect that many organizations will start to migrate apps to containers, see that they require a fundamentally different set of tools and processes, and migrate back. The reason VMs work as well as they do is that they look just like regular servers.
That does not mean that containers will never succeed, just that it will take a long time for the tooling and processes and knowledge about containers to be common and commodity enough for many organizations to take advantage of them.
RedHat is supporting docker via OpenShift[1] so I don't see docker dying anytime soon. From my limited experience docker support on CentOS/RHEL 7 is very good.
[1] https://www.openshift.com/products
I didn't say "die", I just said "trough of disillusionment".
It's not the OS support, it's all the surrounding tools. How do you monitor running Docker containers? How do you handle placement (i.e. let's make sure that the two sides of my MySQL replicated database aren't on the same physical host)? How do you handle hardware maintenance? What happens when someone has an app that requires local runtime configuration parameters? Do you even try to do configuration management on docker images?
And so on and so on.
Wow, amazing how accurate karolisd was with their first few predictions for 2014.
Spark will gain more traction in the data mining world. Companies running on linux will opt to have their codebase in C#. we will likely see a dip in the economy which will affect all includijg tech workers. Julia will start to appear alongside Python and R for data analyst/mining positions.
"Wow, amazing how accurate karolisd was with their first few predictions for 2014."
I don't get it. Is this sarcasm? He's pretty much completely wrong on all counts
Mostly that things won't happen: No consumer business model or compelling apps for IoT; No home automation standards that actually become standard; Smart watches are still too big; Enterprise IT managers still think PCs are at the end of their development without getting cheaper to support, but can't find tablets to replace them. I could be wrong about the last one. An 11-12" 4k+ tablet light enough to hold in one hand should be possible, but where is it?
What will happen? Imaging and video will continue to get better faster than ISPs and content publishers are ready to handle. Trust in US service and technology providers will continue to erode, along with their overseas sales. This raises the possibility of secure, verifiable, consumer friendly storage and/or communications products emerging, but I'm not going to predict that will happen in the US. The government in the US wants their nose in everything.
Ethereum will be released and much of what happened to Bitcoin we will begin to see happening with Ethereum, only it will likely grow much faster.
* Yahoo! will buy Fastmail
* Netflix will win in the same sense YouTube won
* Amazon will launch an OS
* Jason Statham will make between three and five Jason Statham movies.
As regards Mr. Statham:
Motion picture timelines are pretty long, so I imagine you are correct. Of particularly high likelihood (according to imdb) are: Furious 7, Wildcard, and Spy (2015, 2015, and 2015 respectively). I'm curious to know how often new movies come out quickly or secretly -- in particular, if I made the more precise prediction "Jason Statham will be featured in exactly 3 movies released in 2015", how likely is it that I'll be wrong?
You forgot about Transporter XII.
Fastmail was once owned by Opera but bought itself to be independent again. I reckon they wouldn't be interested in being owned by another corporation, especially Yahoo.
We talked about this in the office a few weeks ago. The conclusion that we came to is that we're pretty happy with our current situation so any buyout would have to have a fairly enormous amount of cash attached :)
The Apple watch will be too thick, too heavy, too expensive ,screen too small, battery runtime too low, real usecases questionable and won't sell well after an initial surge of sales to the Apple fanboy, tech-affine, first-mover crowd.
The second iteration will blow it out of the water though.
HTTPS used by at least 90% of all websites because SSL certificates will be free. We have 364 days and 5 simple steps [1] to achieve that.
[1]: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oRXJUIttqQxuxmjj2tgYjj09...
Are there any good blog posts on selling https everywhere to the business folks? I'm an engineer and would like to see the product I work on have HTTPS everywhere but I'm not sure of the ways in which I could convince people to support it.
This helps? http://mashable.com/2011/05/31/https-web-security/
I don't think it's as much the cost as it is the technical difficulty to install and maintain certs.
It should be as easy as installing WordPress, yes. That should be the ultimate goal of the whole discipline of encryption and security: orders of magnitude easy-to-use. SSLmate's[1] `sslmate buy www.example.com` does everything (private key, CSR generation, cert signing) but installation. It automatically maintains the certs too. It's currently a commandline tool.
[1]: https://sslmate.com
* IPV6 still won't be at 50%+ of internet
* Privacy still will be a target to crush for governments, and so any activity/communication media/etc that could affect that main objective.
* More hacking incidents used as excuse for more rights limitations, or for punishing countries
* Cheap health/activity tracking devices will become more popular (xiaomi mi band price/capabilities range could be a baseline)
* Inequality will keep growing. The singularity in that direction should not happen this year anyway.
* More climate related big incidents, but still no worldwide meaningful actions regarding it.
Virtual reality arrives. Oculus with Leap Motion, Nimble VR etc
http://controlvr.com http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_U3BmDlmtc
...or Magic Leap?
http://www.magicleap.com/#/company
Also, the "CastAR"
Looks like it was Yet Another Kickstarter Project:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/technicalillusions/cast...
A couple of things:
1) webtorrent [1] will be used to build the next generation of The Pirate Bay. Media companies will have to realize that suing teens for infringing copyright is not an option, since participating in file sharing is no longer a deliberate act when WebRTC is enabled by default.
2) io.js [2] will heavily influence the future of Node.
3) Angular 2.0 will probably be released at the end of the year [reference?]. People might start establishing an Angular fork (similar to what happened in the Node world).
4) Full stack Google: Angular, Dart and Go.
5) We'll find out if there is a tech bubble [3].
6) One of the following will happen: 1) Developers might tend to use bigger and bigger frameworks, or 2) substack-like extreme modularization (current situation in the npm-world).
7) People will move away from native app development. [4]
8) More frameworks will evolve to "reinvent" the DOM. DOM updates will still be expensive as hell. React was just the beginning.
9) Everything will be a SPA. Now that Google executes JavaScript [5], there is no more reason to render websites on the server. (Unless you're using HN, where 50% of the users are using Lynx).
[1] https://github.com/feross/webtorrent [2] https://github.com/iojs/io.js [3] http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/17/technology... [4] Disclaimer: I work for famo.us. These are my own thoughts and might not express the thoughts of the company I'm working for. [5] http://googlewebmastercentral.blogspot.nl/2014/05/understand...
I don't really see this happening. At least not in 2015! IMHO nothing gives better performance than native apis. Nothing at all.
Native apps might always be superior in performance. Nevertheless, I doubt that the performance benefit of native over web will be big enough to justify a significantly longer development time as we're approaching (near) native performance. Things changed quite a lot last year: WebGL enabled by default on iOS, Ionic had massive adoption, Firefox OS makes the web a first-class citizen again. IMHO it's only a question of time.
Was Adobe Air way ahead of it's time?
- Oil will go lower, at least for a few months
- US, China and World economy will fizzle and maybe tank.
- More players and net-positive news from the Electric Car/Vehicle side.
* Internet of Things will start coming into its own with some really cool stuff coming out at the end of the year
* Big data will get even bigger
* Companies will continue to become more comfortable with their data not being on-premise and cloud will grow larger as a result
According to "Back to the Future II", by Oct 21st, we'll have:
* hoverboards * flying cars * pizza hydrators * size-adjusting-and-auto-drying jackets
-Increased effort by other countries to move away from US internet and tech dominance.
-More global economic shock towards years end.
-North Korea in the news more than last few years. Possible increase in US troop deployed on the Korean peninsula.
-The media decides for us that ISIS isn't really *that bad. Less radical acts coming from the group. The west starts making some concessions.
-4 new JavaScript frameworks arise as the "best way to do things". They get lots of users and press time, and will be largely abandoned by the years end.
-Something completely unexpected happens.
(I have to note the predictions for 2014 on HN were really really bad. Mine probably aren't much better. So don't put much stock. Except in the last prediction. That one is pretty much a guarantee.)
- Someone will get arrested with a 3D-printed gun.
- At least one profitable, company-launching app will come out on Firefox OS first. It likely won't be initially available in English.
- The "freedom and democracy are incompatible" thing will get at least one mention in the mainstream press that won't consist of outright mockery or dismissal.
- Police body cameras will become ubiquitous.
Edit:
- Apple will release the Swift compiler as open source software.
- Something someone at Y Combinator says will be presented as outrageous by the online media. The story will be prominent enough to briefly reach the top of HN's front page and will receive an official response.
Do you have a reference for that?
I was referencing this essay by Peter Thiel: http://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education....
http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/20/7022809/3d-printed-gun-ma...
But I can't tell how sarcastic you are being from your text alone.
Wha? Its not illegal to own a 3d printed gun. Oh, maybe that means 'during commission of a crime'. With the easy availability of guns, I'm wonder why this would be considered noteworthy.
Other countries exist :)
- The excitement for email newsletters will peak in 2015 and be considered passé in 2016. Email will remain popular, but other formats will take hold and have higher engagement rates. Targeting newsletter type material at other media and platforms instead of email will become more significant in 2015 (such as direct to Slack channels, CRM systems, etc.)
- Text chat and interactive systems will become more significant in a way I can't put my finger on yet. But expect to see more Slack-style activity creeping out to other types of app. Instead of "form filling", many types of app will begin to request data in a more conversational way on a "need to know" basis.
* Apple open-sources Swift compiler, open-source server-side ecosystem emerges
* Internet Explorer starts using an open-source rendering engine (like WebKit)
* Google Code shuts down
* Apple will NOT open up iPhone 6 NFC APIs
* Google self driving cars start a war in Washington
* Apple Watch gives life to "intimate" social networks
* Uber launches a package courier service
Some of these sound far fetched, but there's a slight method to the madness.
Rationale here: https://medium.com/@joewalnes/some-2015-tech-predictions-1e7...
I think this is more likely to come true through Microsoft open-sourcing Trident.
"- Uber launches a package courier service" they already have one in NYC.
Microsoft is coming out with a new web browser http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2890454/Is-Mi...
- Samsung will introduce a foldable screen on a premier Android phone.
- People will realise that Apple can't be cool without Steve Jobs.(After the Watch fails to impress anybody).
- Something cool related to Wearables/Motion Sensing will happen. I think the next thing would be Google open-sourcing Glass hardware and Facebook using Oculus Rift technology for something other than gaming.
- Paul Graham will write a number of pretty cool essays. [He does this every year, no surprises :P]
- Privacy will become more mainstream. After apps like DarkMail are introduced, Google and the other players will start to reconsider privacy and we, the people will gain.
- Functional programming will be at a better state. Currently, it's rather under-rated and programmers are rather confused about how to treat it.
- Swift will be open-sourced and we'll see Cross Platform support for it.
- I will sleep less. That's my resolution for this year.
I am very doubtful about the privacy thing. The core problem I see is economical. People will use free messaging (E-Mail, WhatsApp, etc), but the usual business model "Ads" does not work well with end-to-end encryption.
1. Tensions rise and the west and the east continue to grow further apart.
2. More hacking scandals come to light and they are used as cover to restrict privacy and empower the intelligence community.
3. The world will continue to do close to nothing about the environment.
4. More steps are taken to protect children online from piracy, porn and controversial opinions.
5. A major critical vulnerability will be exposed in Tor.
6. Magic Leap will turn out to be a massive.. leap forward in technology.
7. Consumer VR will take the world by storm.
8. All the new encrypted email alternatives will fail.
9. eSports will continue to grow and the League of Legends Worlds final will have over 20 million concurrent viewers.
10. An application of AI will blow everyone away.
Pessimist! Carbon emissions are way down; VR has been about to take the world for a decade
- Flat design will evolve into thin design
- Facebook will lobby for a national voting system that requires a Facebook account.
- ISPs will either merge with or be bought up by some of the world's largest media companies.
- Instead of phones getting thinner or having bigger screens, they'll start having multiple screens.
- The next big thing in the mobile software world will probably come out of Africa or India.
- Cooking and food related devices will become popular in the hacking community.
- Clojure and Rust will gain a great amount of new adopters.
I really like the idea of 'thin design'. That would help with some of the usability issues of flat design but still keep things simple.
- Putin formalizes his autocracy
- China political turmoil becomes frightening to the rest of the world
- US advisers directly engage ISIS in combat
- Four YC companies graduate to the $ 1 Billion valuation club
- Two YC companies graduate to the $ 10 Billion valuation Club
The Putin thing - didn't he do that already, by inventing a govt position for himself where he doesn't get voted out?
He has cemented it, but I think op means formalized with express intent of autocracy.
More Machine Learning/Deep Learning/Artificial Intelligence articles/software
1. Xiaomi's highly efficient business model will be largely copied by some other hardware companies(not only in phones), and together with it's multi product strategy - we'll start to see a big mess happening in the consumer hardware sector.
2. real time fmri will prove it's worth in the first clinical trial (for treating traumatic brain injury). This will cause an in rush of investment in the sector - both for applications in mental health , and applications in "peak performance" .
3. A long range wireless for the IOT will start deployment around most of the us - and will become a very common target for IOT stuff.
4. Deep learning will become usable by standard , non expert developers.
Xiaomi is the next big thing. They've done most things right, yet people don't take them seriously yet, because "Apple-copycat".
For a start, I think they'll hire few more high profile people from prominent SV company to build the brand in Western hemisphere.
Also, I predict this year, there will be much more interesting stuff coming from the East in general.
A few predictions, mainly around Apple, mobile and wearables:
1. Apple Watch will be successful, although Wall Street will not perceive it as such, and sell over 20 million units. It will not sell in iPhone numbers and as a result will be initially dismissed as a failure by major news companies. It will be the catalyst required to launch the wearable market and sales of wearables by other companies will increase considerably.
2. As a result of a burgeoning wearables market, low to medium end mechanical Swiss watch companies and many lower-end quartz watch companies will see a small drop in sales. None will be in trouble yet. High end Swiss watch companies will have nothing to worry about and will likely continue to see increases in sales.
3. A number of Swiss watch companies will release their own wearables (Montblanc recently did this actually[1] but we'll see a lot more in 2015) - they will mostly be ignored due to lack of features, poor craftmanship, buggy software and high prices.
4. Android Wear will continue to develop rapidly however there will be fewer quality apps on the platform. Many Android Wear devices will not see daily use. Tim Cook will mention this on stage at WWDC later this year.
5. Fitness companies, such as Fitbit, will see a decline in sales but will not be in any significant trouble this year.
6. Apple will improve iCloud reliability significantly, restoring some developer trust but not all. Problems with app review will re-emerge as Apple struggles to define the boundaries for the use of new features in iOS 8 (and 9) and on the new Watch platform.
7. Companies will still continue to mainly launch on iOS first although there will be an increased need to be on both platforms (if not at launch but soon after). This is how it has been this year, I don't see any indication that the trend of iOS-first is going away.
8. Over the year, Google will increasingly control Android and the Play Store. It won't become as strict as the App Store next year however long term users of Android will express concern.
9. Profitability of mobile devices will continue to fall. Samsung's profits will decline in the face of competition from companies such as Xiaomi. Apple's global marketshare will either stay fairly level or increase slightly however their cut of the phone industry profits will continue to increase with them making considerably more money than all other players.
[1] http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/introducing-the-montblanc-timew...
-the first beacons physical web platform. -physical web beacons outside retail disrupt, assets management and buildings information management. - ibeacons fail to get traction. - chrome phone - the "URL" physical web beacons become in an unstoppable force on the internet of things. - let's tag the world togheter *.tag
- New implementations for App Containers (like Docker) written in Rust;
- One of the next top AAA startups (like AirBnB or Uber) built almost entirely with Clojure/ClojureScript;
- SublimeText 4;
- Accepted Pull Requests to github.com/Microsoft/Browser;
- You have to be highly motivated by serious reasons to stay in Russia rather than relocate to more startup-friendly country.
- An full-featured ePaper smart watch will become popular as it will do more with less bulk and a small price tag.
- Agencies will experiment with "rapid response" quad copter and other drones. (emergency, police, news, security, etc.) There will be talk of drafting "drone traffic" laws.
- Blockbuster finally goes bust.
- People will really get fed up with facebook en masse and competitors will be scrambling to be "the" next social network.
- Microsoft will debut a BASIC geared for Windows 10 (targeted toward mobile) and tie it into coding for education efforts.
- Businesses needing to upgrade overdue long-term tools will seriously look at Linux and other OSS platforms as commercial OSs have gone toward subscription based walled gardens.
So not gonna happen!
Lisp will emerge as a threat to Javascript.
I think artificial intelligence is going to rule in 2015. With Cortana going to be released in Windows 10 and Brainasoft doing research to make Braina - http://www.brainasoft.com/braina/ a program that can learn like humans, I think 2015 is the year of AI.
- Microsoft, Google have a better 2015
- Apple wont sell much of iwatch and wont grow as much as they did in 2014.
- 3d printing, bitcoin, virtual reality, IOT will be slower this year although they still have a bigger future in 10+ years time.
- Oil will drop a little further and then gain back to near 90 by end of 2015.
- Number of commercial flights disasters will reduce in 2015.
- US is going to do better in 2015.
- Inequality to keep growing
- World will be more peaceful in 2015!
2015 will be the year with a boom in wearables, and it is a crucial year to know, if this gadgets will fly or die.